Lord Bell (for those who do not know, a British
PR guru, who signed a contract with the Belarusian government) is not in vain to
eat his oatmeal. There were several interviews with the Western media recently.
On September 18th, the official Belarusian leader met with
journalists of "The Financial Times” and the “Frankfurter Allgemeine
Zeitung”. Both newspapers, English and German, are well-known and respectable.
So far one
can judge about the content of these conversations only based on fragmentary news
agencies reports. The full texts of these important materials are conventionally
published a few days later usually.
However, it
is curious, what is the primary focus of the governmental state agencies in
this regard.
BELTA, the
state news agency, put in its headline a quote of the Head of State that Belarus has always sought to forge good
relations with Europe. Second thought: "the economy is pushing Belarus to implement open multi-dimensional
policies." Finally, as reported by Interfax-West, Alexander Lukashenko
expressed the interest in the recognition by the Western countries of the parliamentary
elections to be held on September 28 and that they would be compliable with the
international standards.
PR is what
it is. Analysts noted long time ago, that the Belarusian leadership exported at
least two PR approaches. One is with regard to Russia, the second is in relations with the
West. As recently as September 9th, at a press conference with
Russian journalists the leader of the country said that "regardless of how
many kisses we sent to the West, they, the Westerners, will never understand us”.
However
then he appealed to be understood. "... We want you to look at us, to see
and to recognize our elections", said Mr. Lukashenko in simple words.
Actually,
ironically, the issue was brought up by Russia, which is being regularly sworn
with love by the Belarusian authorities. The Kremlin understood very well that,
under the brand name "brotherly integration”, its partner is regularly thriving
for economic preferences only. And they drew their conclusions.
The “UnionState” turned into a clinch. Moscow took
a course towards pragmatic bilateral economic relations. The price of gas in 2009
could reach, according to announcements by Gazprom and Ambassador Surikov, at
least 200 US Dollars. And in case the price would be cheaper, it would not be
because of the “beautiful eyes”. They demand a unified air defense system (with
command posts in Russia, of course), the recognition of Abkhazia, South
Ossetia, the support in the asymmetric response to the deployment of the U.S.
missile defense system in the Czech Republic and Poland. Finally, they call to
open the gate for a “unified currency” and to the Russian capital so that it
could purchase the best assets of a small country.
It is clear
that after reaching the economic heights, Moscow would quickly replace the local
nomenclature and the political helm. Therefore the Belarusian authorities,
regardless of all the stark differences with the opposition, have no other
choice but to stand against the Kremlin till the last moment. That is where Belarus might look for a reliable European backup
instead of the Iron Curtain, to which Russia is pushing forward.
All these Shakespearean
passions are hiding behind a coated diplomatic phrase that “the economy is
pushing Belarus...” and then on the text.
However,
apparently Minsk is not ready to give up easily. In an interview with
journalists of "The Financial Times” and the “Frankfurter Allgemeine
Zeitung” the Belarusian official leader made it clear that he was not expecting
to see many political opponents in the new parliament. Here it is, the phrase
with the subtext: "Unfortunately, this Parliament will not be like ones in
Europe. However this will be the People's
Parliament, elected by the people."
Well, indeed,
what can you do if the people do not want to see more than two or three
opponents in the House of Representatives? That's what the summaries of the
Belarusian authorities may look like after the elections.
In general,
the authorities are counting on that the dilemma between the political
pragmatism and the commitment to liberal values of the West at this stage will
be decided in favor of pragmatism. At least some European politicians are
already preparing for this stage, arguing for the "new approach" based
on a desire to pull Belarus out from under the Kremlin’s cap by
all means.
In the mean
time, local democrats are left to recall the works of a comedian who said that
if there are two evils one might chose from, it is already not so bad.
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