The President of Belarus did not go to the
Belarusian Investment Forum held in London,
he only sent his greetings to the participants. Some said that after the
lifting of the visa sanctions of the European Union against a number of the Belarusian
officials the Foreign Ministry of Belarus was working on the visit of the
President to the capital of England
and that was confirmed as rumors. Mr. Lukashenko’s appearance at the Ball of Presidents
in Warsaw on
11 November remained an assumption as well.
However
while the matter is clear with the Ball, i.e. he was simply not invited, the
participation of the President at the Belinvestforum is purely the decision of
the Belarusian authorities. The first visit by Lukashenko after the lifting of the
travel ban should be resonant and image-making. The Belarusian Investment Forum
is a local event for professional.
Now, it is
more likely that Europe will observe the phenomenon of Lukashenko as a participant of the upcoming
European Union Summit, where it is planned to invite its Eastern partners - Ukraine, Moldova, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. The Czech Foreign
Ministry, which from the 1st of January to the 30th of
June 2009 will chair the EU, has already stated that it was possible and the
format would be "27 plus 6", including Belarus. However on the
condition of implementation of democratic reforms by Belarus.
The Press
Secretary to the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Czech Republic Suzanne
Opletalova in an interview with the EU Observer said, that "we would like
to see Belarus, but there are certain conditions,
i.e. Belarus must become a member of the" Eastern Partnership"
Programme first and, of course, to make certain improvements on the road to
democracy."
The
"Eastern Partnership" (initiated by Poland and Sweden) provides a forum for regional
cooperation of the EU with Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia, as well with Belarus at the expert level. The purpose of
the Programme is the abolition of the visa regime with the EU of the listed states
and the creation of a free trade area in services and goods.
At the
Minsk Forum, held recently in Belarus, the Foreign Ministry of Belarus was
talking about the "Eastern Partnership" Programme in a very positive
tone. The Head of the European Integration Department, Andrei Bushilo reported
that the Belarusian authorities have submitted their proposals on the project.
He said that Belarus welcomed the new EU strategy as it was being elaborated in
partnership with each one of the six countries separately and moreover with
shared bilateral and multilateral approach to cooperation with the European
Union: The "Eastern Partnership" Programme, as we look at it, is not
an internal draft of the EU, which will be proposed to us after "being
cooked" in the internal kitchen, but rather a common dish, which is
important for all."
The date when
the Summit will be held (probably in April)
and whether an invitation for the President Lukashenko to take part in it will
be sent, will become known in December. For such a short period of time, the
Belarusian authorities are unlikely to be able to make a difference in their domestic
policy in the eyes of the EU, however it is most likely that the EU in any case
will retain the possibility to invite Belarus.
Actually,
the leaders of the Belarusian opposition have already received preliminary
invitations to the Summit. In case Lukashenko appears there
too it could be considered as the first episode of a dialogue in the format
"Europe - Authorities - Opposition."
Perhaps the opposition leaders and the President even shake hands.
