The New York Times: Belarus Leader May Trade Rivals’ Freedom for Aid

Facing a deepening economic crisis in Belarus, the country’s authoritarian president, Aleksandr G. Lukashenko, indicated on Wednesday that he might free his imprisoned political rivals, a signal that he could be ready to strike a deal with Western governments in exchange for financial support.

Until now, Mr. Lukashenko has openly mocked demands from the United States and the European Union to release about two dozen opposition figures who were jailed for participating in a large protest over the president’s victory in fraud-riddled elections last year.

But the Belarussian economy now appears to be in free fall. Foreign currency reserves are dwindling, and prices are rising. Already in steep decline, the Belarussian ruble was devalued by an additional 36 percent this week, and many economists say it could plunge further.

There are fears of panic, as Belarussians stock up on increasingly expensive staple goods as well as dollars and euros, if they can still get them.

A large foreign bailout is imperative, economists say, but a $3 billion loan tentatively offered by Russia has been slow in coming, and might not be enough in any case.

That leaves only the West.

“They are still screaming, ‘Free the political prisoners,’ ” Mr. Lukashenko said Wednesday, referring to Western officials. “We’ll free them probably. No need to blow government money on prisons, eating up bread.”

Western officials offered no immediate reaction to Mr. Lukashenko’s remarks, which were widely construed as a sign that the president might be willing to soften his hard line.

“This is a signal that our government is now open to a deal,” said Sergei Chaly, an independent economist in Minsk, the capital of Belarus.

Both the United States and the European Union have imposed economic sanctions against top officials in Belarus, including the president, contingent on the release of the prisoners.

The police brutally dispersed tens of thousands of people who converged last December on a large square in Minsk to contest the presidential elections. Hundreds were arrested, and opposition leaders have since been sentenced to up to five years in prison for organizing the rally.

Though a Moscow-led alliance of former Soviet republics has offered a bailout, there are fears in Belarus that it will come at the expense of the country’s lucrative government-owned energy transport infrastructure, which Russia has long coveted.

The troubles have shaken confidence in Mr. Lukashenko, who in nearly 17 years as president has largely staved off the wild economic fluctuations suffered by other former Communist bloc countries by maintaining a Soviet-style command economy and relying on handouts from others.

For the first time on Wednesday, Mr. Lukashenko acknowledged, in his offhand way, the country’s dire economic state. “Sure, there was devaluation. So what?” he said, according to the Interfax news agency. “The important thing is to deal with it properly.” 

Micyael Schwirtz, The New York Times