Uladzimir Matskevich: Miracles do not happen. In the economy, as well

We should not expect miracle in the Belarusian economy neither in a week nor after six to eight weeks, nor until the end of the year.

At the meeting of August, the 25^th Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has announced a new term of currency stabilization in the country. "We have six to eight weeks to stabilize the foreign exchange market. Completely! - declared Alexander Lukashenko. - For the population not only listened to [us] and believed or not believed, but felt that the course [of exchange] that has been determined will operate in the sequel, and that the situation will be evolving in direction designated by the President".

Let us recall that the promises to stabilize the situation "in the next six to eight weeks" have been repeatedly heard from the Belarusian government officials since the spring. Now the stabilization has been smoothly postponed until the autumn. But this time, the Belarusian president has promised that next week the economic course of the further development of the country will be finally determined. Why the state leadership is feeding its people promises and whether these promises are justified, Information service of "EUROBELARUS" asked a methodologist Uladzimir Matskevich: 

- Prior to the December presidential elections, they’ve been strenuously demonstrating that the country was still in a state of economic growth. Starting from January, and all the first quarter of this year they’ve been strenuously pretending that nothing was happening: there was no crisis and no threat for the country, everything has been taken into account, the authorities have agreed upon all the loans and investment agreements. Then in spring the country's leadership was constrained to admit that the crisis still existed. Meanwhile, the time for the possibility of response was lost - about five months. As a countermeasure it was decided to conduct partial, quite timid devaluation; which, all the same, did not solve any problem. It just watered for a few months what should have been done in the form of a shock therapy for the transition to the real way out of the situation. Summer was a dead season, when the market was living an autonomic financial life, practically independent of the decision of the authorities. Today, I think, the President, the National Bank, the Council of Ministers have absolutely no solution to the real way out of crisis. Moreover, in contrast to the spring situation, they do not even promises from international financial institutions and foreign governments as for the foreign support. Therefore, these six to eight weeks that the President has effectively requested, do only mean that he doesn’t know if he's coming or going.

- But Alexander Lukashenko has declared that next week there will be determined the economic course of further development of the country. How to understand such a declaration?

- Determination of the country's economic course does not require neither a week nor six weeks. Everything reasonable that they could propose had been known as far back as last year. So now, actually, there is nothing left to decide. Or they should make a decision and take on liberalization, or there will be just another timid attempt to gain time in waiting for a miracle.

- Can a miracle happen?

- Miracles do not happen. In the economy, as well. So we can’t expect that something could change in a week, six weeks or even until the end of the year.

Information service of "EUROBELARUS"