Leanid Zlotnikau: We might need to tighten our belts and outlay foreign-exchange reserves

If the current situation is preserved, dollar rate will make up 12-13 thousand rubles, the economist forecasts.

Average annual dollar rate in 2014 will make up 9.800 rubles. “There won’t be enough foreign currency to sustain the living standard of the population, which will result in further inflation and raise of dollar rate”, - Leanid Zlotnikau, the economist, believes.

Over the last six months, starting from June, we are observing the gradual weakening of Belarusan ruble-to-dollar rate. Each month the dollar was growing approximately on 100 rubles. If this tendency remains, the official dollar rate can make up 9.500 rubles by the end of this year.

Leanid Zlotnikau, the economist, gave comments about these figures to the EuroBelarus Information Service.

- Leanid, are there any objective reasons for such optimism of the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus?

- Most probably, no.

- If you doubt that the average annual dollar rate will make up 9.800 rubles next year, what is your prognosis?

- Only conditional forecast is possible: one cannot give a hundred-per-cent prognosis for tomorrow.

 If the current situation is preserved, further help will come neither from the West, nor from the East, as they both urge Belarusan authorities to diminish the population’s income and support of government programs. If in the current situation there won’t be enough foreign currency to sustain the living standard of the population, it will result in further inflation and raise of dollar rate.

Numerous factors influence the way situation is going to develop: whether we will manage to privatize state enterprises, mobilize investments and loans, etc. If the currency is not enough, dollar rate will reach 12-13 thousand rubles. Every state and every financial institute wants to support economically profitable projects. Who will invest in our country being aware of the situation that we are in?

- What dollar rate will our country reach towards the end of 2013?

- By the end of the year we can, actually, preserve the existing dollar rate, if the National Bank and the government will be willing to do that, as the foreign-exchange reserves that we have will be enough for two more months. However, if their expenditure continues with the same speed, the government will panic and try to take certain measures.

Belarusan state hopes to get the last 440-million dollar tranche from the EurAsEC Anticrisis Foundation till the end of the year. The authorities are afraid that the foreign-exchange reserves reach the limit of 5 million dollars, in which case no loans will be given. Besides, there is no one willing to do that now.

Situation can be characterized as unstable. We might need to tighten our belts and outlay foreign-exchange reserves at the same time, which will cause panic. People will raise credits with banks and withdraw their money from banks.