Between Square 2010 and the end of the world
Two years have passed from the moment of cruel suppression of the peaceful demonstration after the presidential election in Belarus.
EuroBelarus Information Service has asked the representatives of the civil society about the significant changes which took place in the country during the time of Square 2010 dispersal.
Andrei Kazakevich, director of the Institute for Policy Studies Palіtychnaya Sphera (Political Sphere):
- The main thing that should be noted is the change of the economic situation. In 2010 there still existed an idea that Belarus escaped crisis, there were no consequences for the population – the worsening of the living conditions, unemployment. Quite the opposite, we witnessed certain economic growth.
And practically straight away after the events of at the Square the exchange crisis began and considerable worsening of the economic situation took place.
One can say that this point was a certain borderline. As now social and economic model that was built in Belarus during the 2000s has disappeared.
What concerns change in the political situation, then it has worsened for the most part. Especially if we compare it with the so-called liberation during 2008-2010. In 2010, as we know, certain repressive steps in relation to the opposition took place. Its activity was paralyzed for considerable time and even more marginalized – shifted to the information and political periphery. And this situation continued during the last 2 years.
It is hard to say that the opposition recovered upon the crisis that happened after the repressions of late 2010. The consequences of it are felt up to now. And the overall conditions for the political activity have only worsened.
In foreign affairs certain changes that concern the eastern vector took place. Over these 2 years Belarus, at least formally, was involved in suprastate institutions connected with Eurasian integration, had to adopt new game rules – economic, customs and so on. And, of course, we have every reason to say that the eastern vector became more powerful than it used to be. And dependence of Belarus from Russia, both political and economic, has only increased.
At the same time, the relations with the West after the events of 2010 have worsened. And we can say that they got in some crisis, stagnation. Perhaps, there are no positive moments in these relationships.
Miraslau Kobasa, chairman of the Enlightenment Public Association “Lew Sapieha Foundation”:
- The first place should be given to the fact that Belarus still has lots of political prisoners. Lots of political prisoners stay behind bars from December, 2010. Moreover, their lines are replenished form time to time, the conditions of their confinement are getting worse for them with the time.
In political life the events of December 2010 became the beginning of new winter. Thus, even if some changes did happen, they only did it towards the worst. The country doesn’t participate in a number of events – take the same Eastern Partnership; the dialog between the civil organizations and the state wouldn’t be established. All in all, the politics is becoming more and more one-sided.
What concerns public life, it didn’t become better either. The working conditions are rather tough; the projects are almost not registered. Old problems remained as they were, they didn’t disappear anywhere. And it looks like no one is going to solve them.
After the 19th of December, 2010 there is no waiting for much change. There were certain expectations before, though, naturally, it is not the first time when such expectations appear. And this time the suppression of these expectations was very brutal and unexpected.
Now we also live as if on a mine: it is unknown what there will be in politics and economy tomorrow. And recent decisions at the enterprises make you feel that the end of the world will actually come on the 21st of December. And the statements towards the director “If you don’t put the factory on its feet, then we will put you in prison” really remind of 1937. Unfortunately, nothing optimistic can be said there…
Aliaksei Karol, Belarusian Association of Journalists, “New Time” newspaper:
- During these two years the growth of people’s discontent with the existing authorities, discontent with their economic conditions came about. And it is because of that why the Square was brutally dispersed then - the authorities felt future changes.
The mood of discontent remained and, possibly, has even increased, though they haven’t gone beyond passive protest area yet.
It is well worth to recall that the authorities support the regime of repressions now. The only thing is that they have been scattered all across Belarus, into the regions, and are aimed at persons whose names are not that famous. By this it is meant that the reaction of the international community will be less significant. And the goal of the rotational repressions is the same – to support fear and restraint of energetic actions. One more negative tendency is the international isolation and switch to the vassalage of our country from Russia.
Among the positive changes I can name the public awareness of necessary and burning changes. The historical experience shows that it is exactly from these situations that social explosions occur in their milder or tougher forms. And Belarus is approaching a certain borderline, when the changes will be unavoidable. Certain conservation of the situation occurs only because the regime still has certain feed from Russia, though it has to pay for that with even more dependence on Russia’s governing body.
Alena Tankačiova, the head of the Legal Transformation Centre “Lawtrend”:
- Firstly, the saddest thing from the foreign affairs’ side was the fact that someone craved to the consequences which have come after the dispersal of Square 2010 in December after all. And in my understanding, those changes that took place in foreign politics cannot be called other than negative, i.e. the complete retreat from “constructive imitation” to what is called multipolarity.
Secondly (but what has to be reminded the more often possible): there has never been such number of political imprisoners in the country. And it can only be named uncovered shame from the point of view of the dialogue policy.
In relation to the civil community certain disdain of what is called expression of the will of the citizens was demonstrated. One should respect the right to peaceful protest; otherwise it goes out from the peaceful state to the latent marginal zones, and that results in untying of social explosions. And it is not what those groups that class themselves as civil community are aiming at, as this way is not the way of normal evolutionary development.
I also want to specify the incapacity to common consolidate action of those people who are in the political opposition. It is as well moves us away from what can be called the common voice of the civil community, capable of achieving the necessary change; first of all, in the sphere of democracy and human rights.
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