Belarus-EU relations move from sanctions to an unwanted dialogue

The EU took more than enough steps towards the Belarusian authorities, whereas Lukashenka’s regime did not take a single step in return, writes Ryhor Astapenia.

Let us recall that on 29 May 2013, the Council of the EU withdrew all sanctions from former deputy editor of the newspaper "SB Belarus Today" Hanna Shadryna and two Belarusian companies - "Akvadiv" and "Sport-Pari". The next day, the MEPs discussed Justas Paleckis' report, in which he claims “an improvement of the situation of human rights in 2012”.

The European Union disappointed in the petty sanctions policy once again. The backstage negotiations about the future dialogue have been in progress for several months but with little evidence of success. The EU took more than enough steps towards the Belarusian authorities. At the same time, Lukashenka’s regime did not take a single step in return. It looks like the EU wants this dialogue more that the Belarusian authorities. 

In order the Belarus-EU relations make sense, the parties should in the first place develop mutual trust. If the European leaders lost their trust in Lukashenka after 19 December 2010, the regime also has a list of claims against the EU. Not surprisingly, the Belarusian regime will not trust those who want to destroy it.

Lingering start of a dialogue

The negotiations between the Belarusian authorities and the EU has been going on for several months. The EU managed to take several important gestures.

Last month, Belarusian PM Mikhail Miasnikovich participated in an economic forum in Lithuanian city of Klaipeda together with his Lithuanian colleagues. The EU also invited Belarusian Minister for Foreign Affairs and constructor of the previous dialogue Uladzimir Makei to the meeting of the Eastern Partnership countries’ foreign ministers in Poland. Makei ignored the invitation.  

Still, withdrawal of sanctions and Justas Paleckis’ controversial report remain the most significant steps of the EU. Former activist of the Lithuanian Communist Party Justas Paleckis paid a visit to Minsk in March. The draft report caused a storm of rage among the Belarusian civil society. Among other things, the report states that there was “an improvement of the situation of human rights in 2012” and offers “to consider the suspension of key officials from the EU visa ban list”. Paleckis acknowledged later that his word usage was in some places inaccurate. 

On the other side, the Belarusian authorities so far failed to do anything significant in response to EU's gestures. About a month ago a rumour circulated between Minsk and Brussels that the Belarusian authorities would release political prisoners on 5 May, when the Belarusian Orthodox Christians celebrated Easter. However, the Belarusian authorities has not done it. The Swedish ambassador who was expelled from Belarus has not returned to Belarus either. The Belarusian authorities failed to renew the Swedish Ambassador’s accreditation after the teddy bears stunt.

The relations between Belarus and the EU remain a one-way road. The more concessions the EU makes the more empowered the Belarusian authorities feel. Therefore, the EU should stick to the request to release of the political prisoners’ and get back to the principle – “more for more” as it did in the past.

Belarus-EU relations – the brakes

Mutual mistrust remains a key problem in bilateral relations. The EU burnt on the previous dialogue to trust Lukashenka any more. The European politicians who invested their reputation and influence into the previous dialogue lost a lot after the brutal dispersion of the demonstration on 19 December 2010. Still, the Belarusian authorities also have reasons ro distrust the EU.

Most European leaders make it clear that the long-term aim of their policy with regard to Minsk remains change of Lukashenka’s regime. If the EU’s decision-makers want to see Lukashenka in a cell in the Hague, why should he trust them, or demonstrate any sincerity?

Also, the incident with Bulgarian Minister Mladenov influenced the attitude of the Belarusian authorities to the EU negatively. In 2011, Mladenov arrived in Minsk for a secret meeting with Alexander Lukashenka, and then the letter of the Bulgarian Minister to Catherine Ashton with all details leaked to the internet. Thus, the Belarusian authorities worry that each word they say may get to the Western press and Lukashenka will lose face.

Using the terminology of the Belarusian leader, Lukashenka does not  want “to be bent over”. In the opinion of the Belarusian authorities, the political prisoners’ release must look a mercy from Lukashenka, not a concession to the EU. Getting back to the dialogue is not an attempt to get saved from the Russian dependence, but the result of the acknowledgement of the “uniqueness of the Belarusian model” by the EU.

Also, the Belarusian authorities want to have exclusive relations with the European Union only, leaving Belarusian civil society aside. This is why the “European Dialogue on Modernisation” failed. The authorities refuse to recognise the opposition as equal. In order to save the program the EU will be forced to change it, making it aimed at the government-to-government relations.

Breaking the circle

Creating the “road map” of the relations remains the only way out. However, traditional EU’s issues rise again here, like the absence of unity between the 27 member states. If such countries as Lithuania stand for milder approach, Poland pursues stricter policy. Some Western European countries, like France, consider Belarus through the prism of its own relations with Russia.

The “road map” sounds like a mantra for the analytical community today. However, putting something from paper to real life never comes easy in politics. Still, without a clear aim this dialogue will end like the 2010 dialogue. 

In addition to putting together and stick to the “road map” the EU should decide together with the Belarusian regime who will implement this road map. Lithuania claims its willingness to act as an intermediate between the EU and the Belarusian regime. However, its pragmatic approach alerts some member states.

It looks likely that Lithuania will get a cart-blanche to play a leading role during its presidency in the EU. The question is, how wisely it will use this opportunity. 

BelarusDigest