Andrei Kazakevich: Ukrainian nation is passing a test on integrity and unity

photo AFP

If Russia starts a military operation in Crimea, the vast majority of Ukrainians will unequivocally interpret it as aggression, which will turn Ukraine into an anti-Russia state.

Will the old Verkhovna Rada and Maidan manage to come to an agreement? Will Russia realize the Abkhazian and Ossetian scenario in Crimea? What lessons did Belarus draw from the Ukrainian revolution?

These issues EuroBelarus Information Service discussed in the talk with Andrei Kazakevich, the director of the Institute for Policy Studies Palіtychnaya Sphera (Political Sphere).

- Ukrainian revolution accomplished its essential goals: Yanukovich is overthrown and fled. But it is the old Verkhovna Rada, which is intently controlled by Maidan, that is ruling the country now. Will the association of “Verkhovna Rada-Maidan” be able to effectively run the state in the transition period?

- The problem is that for now Ukraine doesn’t have one political center, which would be legitimate and able to pursue policy at the same time. The relations between the official policy and grass roots Maidan are a remaining problem, which brings considerable instability. We can only hope that these contradictions doesn’t lead to further destabilization in the country and the parties at stake will find an efficient base for cooperation, abstaining from radical revolutionary decisions and actions.

- Yanukovich fled; however, he didn’t renounce his presidential office. Is there a threat that the former president decides to take revenge, for instance, using the separatist moods.

- I think that it is almost impossible. The fact that he fled discredited him both in the eyes of those who support new authorities, as well as in the eyes of his former supporters.

- Russia has lost Ukraine; but it didn’t give up its imperial ambitions to swallow up at least some part of the country. The events in Crimea show that Kremlin can try to open a war, implementing the Abkhazian and Ossetian scenario on the peninsula. What is the possibility of such scenario?

- Ukrainian nation is passing a test on integrity and unity now. And nation’s unity surpassed the forecasts of many analysts.

Opponents of “Maidan” and pro-Russian forces have been trying to mobilize the South-Eastern part of Ukraine against the new authorities; however, for now these attempts turned to be unsuccessful. The only enclave of confrontation is Sevastopol, where situation is mostly under control of pro-Russian forces; but such situation is local and predictable.

The situation in Crimea is controversial. But with the mobilization of Crimean Tartars, pro-Russian forces will find it difficult to dispose themselves there.

Of course, a lot will depend on Russia’s behavior. However, there is no serious reason for Russia to act according to the Abkhazian and Ossetian scenario. Besides, military intervention without UN sanctions means the disruption of status-quo in the region and violation of many international obligations on the part of Russia. Thus, I consider Abkhazian and Ossetian scenario to be hardly possible.

- Still, during the Ukrainian revolution Kremlin adopted an aggressive posture and will hardly step back now. How far can Moscow go in its imperial rush?

- I don’t think it will go too far: such actions can have a far-reaching effect. And the majority of Russian officials speak about the Ukrainian revolution with restraint.

There are two possible scenarios. First, providing that Russia supports pro-Russian moods without using military force, it can maintain certain authority in the south-eastern Ukraine. In case Russia starts military operation in Crimea, there is high possibility that the majority of Ukrainian population will unequivocally interpret it as aggression, which will turn Ukraine into an anti-Russian state. Besides, negative reaction on the part of US, EU and Turkey will only complicate the situation.

Economic interests of Crimea are also involved. As if the conflict is escalated, Crimean economy, which is highly dependent on tourism, can collapse. And Russian help will hardly compensate for the economic losses.

- The EU is criticized for the passive reaction to the Ukrainian events. Do you share such point of view?

- I fully agree that the EU was passive at least before the bloodshed and did little to motivate the participants of the political confrontation to look for compromise, observe obligations and solve the crisis peacefully. However, after the bloodshed the European Union took a more active stance. Finally, the EU is now considering allocating 1 billion euro to Ukraine in March, which is a big step forward, comparing with the previous European policy.

It appears that the European Union has realized that their confused policy towards Ukraine was wrong and now it is going to be more consistent and active.

- Where does this passiveness result from?

- A number of factors contributed to that. First, complications inside the EU: the growing number of Euro-sceptics, difficult economic situation, problems with financial aid allocation. And, secondly, Russia, which took serious steps to neutralize Europeans on the international scene.

The results were unpredictable both for Europe and Russia.

- What will be the relations between Belarus and new Ukraine?

- I believe that in the near future there won’t be any considerable change in the Belarus-Ukraine relations. At least there are no political and economic grounds for that; ideology is not a matter of principle here.

The only possible factor for serious change is the pressure from Russia. For instance, Moscow can demand to toughen customs policy and to restrict contacts. I don’t think that Ukraine and Belarus intend to radically change the character of their quite stable relations, which are equally important for the both sides.

- What lessons did Belarus draw from the Ukrainian revolution?

- Belarus is diverse. The main lesson is that changes can come unexpectedly, and everything can happen during these changes, including tragic events. To prevent the bloodshed, it is of great importance to have basis for consensus and a mechanism to overcome political crises both for the authorities and the opposition.

- A lot of guesses are being made now: is Belarusan Maidan possible in 2015?

- First of all, unexpectedness is the most important factor for revolution. Belarusan authorities draw certain conclusions from the Ukrainian events and will be trying to do their utmost to neutralize the factors which led to Maidan.

Secondly, Belarusan political culture is different from the Ukrainian: Belarusan show their discontent through emigration and escaping active political actions. The state of our society is different, too: thus, our recent research shows that protest activity in Belarus last year was 5-7 times lower than in Ukraine before Maidan.

Taking into account all the factors, it is hard to predict Belarusan Maidan. At least I find such scenario unlikely. If serious political changes happen in Belarus before long, they will be more likely to result from the actions of authorities than under the pressure of opposition or street protests. On the other hand, the historical records suggest that everything is possible.