From the economic blockage to the dramatic increase of military presence in the region.
After the Council of the Federation had unanimously approved Putin’s appeal to permit military operation in Ukraine, the EU, Turkey, Canada and USA have reacted with several statements. But what can really stop Russia?
According to Andrei Yahorau, the Director of Centre for European Transformation, “now no statements, appeals, etc. can influence the situation”.
- Only adequate retaliatory actions of the EU, US, Turkey, NATO bloc can influence the situation. From the economic blockage to the start of military operation in the region, only coalition actions can make Russia renounce its plans on military operation in Ukraine. And these actions should be tough, quick and even politically incorrect. The full arsenal of the available opportunities should be used within the next few days. The delay will only serve the interests of Russia.
A war would be the worst scenario, noted Andrei Yahorau in the interview with the EuroBelarus Information Service. It will develop into a world war if other countries get involved in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
In current situation there are few other variants left: partition of the country into Western and South-Eastern parts, military operation in Crimea, restoration of former authorities with Russia’s military aid and transformation of Ukraine into a puppet state.
- I’m inclined to think that Russia will choose Crimea as its goal, - Andrei Yahorau says.
Answering the question whether the decision of the political ruling top will coincide with the aspirations of the Russian society, Andrei Yahorau noted:
- Not with all the society, but with its considerable part. It is Russia that feels most nostalgic about the Soviet Union among the post-Soviet countries.
Andre Yahorau also emphasized that Putin’s actions quite fit in his plans to restore the Russian Empire. Let us recall that it is compulsion to Customs Union, disruption of Association Agreement with the EU that led to Euromaidan and collapse of Viktor Yanukovich’s power.
Going back to the newest events, the Director of Centre for European Transformation emphasized:
- The partition, aggression against the independent Ukraine is horrible and inacceptable; these actions cannot be justified, there are no cogent arguments for that.
In any case, on the night of March 2 military registration and enlistment offices opened in Ukraine – the start of levy in mass.
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