Miachyslau Hryb: Occupation of Crimea was planned long ago

In current situation Ukraine can’t hold Crimea against the care of Russian invaders; it can only set hopes upon the international community.

Such opinion on the Russian intervention to Crimea with the EuroBelarus Information Service shared Miachyslau Hryb, the former Chairman of the Supreme Soviet of Belarus and retired lieutenant general of police.

- What is your attitude to the introduction of Russian army to Crimea?

- I hold the subjective opinion that this is wrong. I strongly believe that any political conflict can be resolved peacefully. As the history shows, it is easy to launch a war, but it is basically impossible to stop it.

- Is there a big risk of Russia-Ukraine war?

- With the presence of both Russian and Ukrainian armies there, it is big. Conflicts and provocations between the armed soldiers are inevitable; someone can be killed, and it will serve as an excuse for the military actions.

- Is it safe for Belarus to have Russia as an ally on CSTO? Is it possible that Kremlin draws Belarusan soldiers into the war against Ukraine?

- The Supreme Soviet of Belarus of the 13^th convocation adopted a law, according to which Belarusan soldiers cannot take part in military actions in trouble spots of other countries. Russia is dangerous for Belarus; Crimea serves as an example.

If foreign army is occupying Ukraine’s territory now, in the near future Russia can start defending the rights of the Russian-speaking population in Belarus, which we have plenty. Even though we have less ethnic Russians than Ukraine, it will be enough for Russia to rush to their “defence”.

- From the point of view ofa lieutenant general of police, can the so-called “local self-defense squads”, which Putin puts all the blame on, buy uniform and modern weaponry by wholesale?

- It is impossible. It all costs vast amount of money, and no self-defense squad can afford it.

- How, do you think, will the Crimean military adventure end for Kremlin?

- It all depends on Europe: if it takes tough measures and says its decisive “no”, Russia will find itself in the situation of international isolation. The consequences of that for the world’s biggest oil and gas supplier will be deplorable. However, if Europe only limits itself to oral statements and warnings, Russia can get Crimea.

The thing is that today Ukraine cannot win Crimea from Russia on its own: the forces are unequal. All the more that Ukraine is suffering the economic and state crisis now, and one can’t be at war at this time.

- Why Putin can’t adhere to the 1997 Russia-Ukraine Agreement on status and conditions of stay of the Black Sea Fleetin the territory of Ukraine?

- I don’t think that Putin will answer if we ask him about it. Russian authorities suffer from “great-power policy”. They can’t be at peace with the Crimean autonomy as a part Ukraine. Now they have chosen the most appropriate, as they think, moment to eliminate the historical injustice.

- OSCE invited 40 military observers to Ukraine; their mission ends on March 12, but they never get to Crimea. And suddenly the self-declared Crimean Verkhovna Rada invites the OSCE observers to the Referendum on March 16. What do you think: will international community help Ukraine to combat Russian military intervention?

- It is unclear for me why international observers got access to Ukraine but not to Crimea. The question appears: why so, if the referendum is fair and honest? I personally don’t understand why Russia doesn’t recognize Ukrainian authorities, saying that they were elected in an unlawful way, and recognizes Crimean authorities, which were elected in the same way – through square protests?

If we start citing the law, then let’s recall that unlike Belarus, local referendums are not provided by the Ukraine’s legislation.

Today Europe and official Kiev tell Crimea, that the world won’t recognize the referendum. Even if Crimea announces itself an independent state at the referendum, it will only be recognized by Russia. What’s next?

- If OSCE is no authority for Putin, can NATO bring him to reason?

- Yes, it can do that. But Russia is a member of UN Security Council. However, the main thing to keep in mind is that NATO doesn’t want to be at war with the nuclear state, as it is a huge risk. Thus, Russian authorities are sure they can do what they want as nobody will war with them.

- Will Crimea go to Russia?

- It is quite possible. I think it was planned long ago.