Andrei Kazakevich: There is possibility that Belarus will take part in military operation

It is highly possible that everything will come to the maneuvers at the Western border. However, over the last months many unlikely events happened and we shouldn’t exclude such possibility.

For quite a long time Aliaksandr Lukashenka limited himself to short statements on the situation in Ukraine, saying that Belarus will contact the new authorities and that Belarus stays for the territorial unity of Ukraine. However, after the phone conversation with Vladimir Putin on March 11, Belarusan leader suddenly requested 15 Russian planes to be delivered to the Belarusan territory and got worried about NATO’s activation in Poland and Lithuania. He lso commanded to conduct tactical exercise similar to those going on in Poland. EuroBelarus Information Service talked about the reasons of such dramatic change from the neutral to almost warlike posture with Andrei Kazakevich, the director of the Institute for Policy Studies Palіtychnaya Sphera (Political Sphere).

- It seems that Belarusan authorities simply haven’t decided on the exact attitude to these issues, which recently caused certain changes. I think that the main factor affecting the moods within Belarusan governing boy is the pressure that Russia is exerting on its neighbor. Russia is now in the situation of foreign-policy isolation; so it is trying to consolidate the support of Russian partners and allies, which can be said about China, Turkey and other countries, not only about Belarus. However, because Belarus-Russia relations are very complicated, there are quite a lot of leverages to exert on Belarus. There is also possibility that the pressure is related to some promises, for instance, additional loans or certain economic support.

- Starting from the end of 2013 Belarusan authorities were trying to mend their relations with Europe. Will these perfunctory attempts be blocked by the tactical exercise at the Western border and by enhancement of Russian military presence in Belarus?

- It seems to me that Europe is pretending to ignore Belarus, as there is no reason to involve one more side in this confrontation before the EU sorts out problems with Russia. Of course, Europe excludes the scenario of military intervention, unless Russia starts it in continental Ukraine. Thus, EU maneuvers serve rather as a demonstration of power; however, it doesn’t benefit Europe-Belarus relation either. Belarus’ orientation to the West is endangered by Russia’s desire to see loyalty of the official Minsk. Financial mechanisms or some other means will be employed for Russia to make sure this is true. It would be very inconvenient for Russia to lose its control over Belarus now; that is why I think that Russia will somehow restrict the initiatives aimed at broader Belarus-Europe cooperation.

- It is possible that Russia will make further steps to consolidate fellowship in arms? Belarus is a part of Union State of Russia and Belarus, where military duties are even bigger than that in CSTO. Can it end with the presence of Belarusan soldiers at the Ukrainian territory?

- I think there is such a possibility, although it is low. I believe that in case Russia makes such decision, it will negatively affect the inner political situation and atmosphere in the country. I admit that it is possible, as some media consider such scenarios: for instance, if NATO attacks Russia, Belarus can join Russia to fight against the enemy together. And even if this scenario is highly improbable, we should take into consideration the fact that a lot of what had earlier seemed impossible happened during the last months. Thus, there is some danger for the Belarusan society in this scenario.