Aliaksandr Klaskouski: Once Moscow might need Belarus’ annexation

If we feel preliminary bombardment, which looks as aggressive Russian propaganda, we are to expect “little green men”.

A real war supported by propaganda from both the parties in the war is going on in Ukraine. However, Russian propaganda is as powerful as anything.

In this situation one cannot but think about the possibility of similar situation in Belarus. Will Belarus be able to confront the aggressor in the information war? Aliaksandr Klaskouski, Belarusan political analyst and journalist in the interview with “EuroBelarus” Information Service shares his viewpoint on the processes, which are happening in Belarus’ media sphere.

- Two weeks passed since Belarusian Minister of Information was dismissed from his position, but we still didn’t get any official explanation to that. One of the unofficial versions is that he has lost his fight for Internet. How much truth is in these words?

- Oleg Proleskovsky, former Belarusian Minister of Information, wasn’t very competent in Internet specifics, persistently promoting his idea of creating a mega-portal of state media that allegedly could surpass the non-governmental segment of Bynet.

The problem is not with Proleskovsky; in general, non-governmental journalism beats state web-journalism, especially when it comes to free bloggers and social networks.

However, certain governmental websites, such as BelTA or sb.by have quite high attendance; but they have monopolised a whole sector of information, which non-governmental media can't access.

Honestly, I would say that the policy of the Belarusan authorities in regard to Internet is somewhat demonised. Obviously, Belarusan authorities don’t want to copy Chinese or Iranian methods of fight against freethinking in the Internet - they need to demonstrate certain freedom, both for the West as well as for feedback. Though of course, you won’t find information about “fifth column” and real people’s opinion about this or that question.

As to the policy of Belarusan authorities in relation to Internet, I can figuratively say that the state can strangle Bynet at any moment even though it gives certain freedom to Bynet. I’m afraid that tough line in this sphere can prevail, because for the state election is a special operation where all means are good.

- Lukashenka is constantly boasting that he learned a lesson from Ukrainian events. One of them says that one cannot live in the situation of information war and feel safe.

- A system of strong independent media is one of the components for information security information security. However, its creation is out of question for the Belarusan regime.

- Belarus is basically living in Russian information space - Belarusans mostly get information from the Russian electronic mass media. Political systems of Belarus and Russia and, accordingly, propaganda, are very similar, and sometimes weird situations happen: while Russian TV-channels talk about “fascists” and “Kiev junta”, Lukashenka talks about support of the new Ukrainian authorities, about the necessity to fight for Crimea and preserve Ukraine’s integrity. The combination of two propagandas in one creates chaos in the heads of Belarusans. And such situation is not of use to the authorities: common people start thinking that Lukashenka is supporting “Kiev junta”. But the authorities are not even trying to change such situation. Why is that?

- Belarusans got used to Orwell’s reality of “doublethink”; so when there are two opposite theses in one Lukashenka’s phrase nobody gets surprised. Lukashenka’s supporters think about profit, not about words. Alterations in Lukashenka’s approval rate are linked with Belarusans' material wellbeing.

Secondly, the so-called “junta” is no longer a junta - after Poroshenko’s election Kremlin has lost a lot of propaganda arguments. Lukashenka expected the crisis period to be over soon and felt that his artful politics towards Ukraine will justify itself.

As independent social polls show, Lukashenka ’s approval rate increased, and experts share the opinion that the situation in Ukraine is a reason for that. In the eyes of common people Lukashenka embodies a “strong hand”, which preserves stability in the country unlike Kiev, full of bloodshed and shocks.

- Today Ukraine started thinking about information security and is stopping the broadcasting of Russian TV-channels; earlier Baltic States did the same thing. Contrariwise, Belarus has recently given shelter to “Zvezda” (“Star”), the TV-channel of Russian Ministry of Defense. Why can’t we at least limit Russian propaganda?

- It would only be logical to do so. Let me recall that once Russian broadcasting was curtailed, and Moscow finally had to accept that decision.

Now Lukashenka is getting deeper and deeper into Eurasian integration, and Belarus is becoming increasingly dependent on Russia. It is impossible to put censorship onto Russian TV-channels – they all consist of anti-Ukrainian chauvinist seamy propaganda. Though I don’t exclude the possibility of curtailing Russian TV-channels in Belarus if the Belarusan authorities sense any threat in them.

- Information war, and great influence of Russian propaganda in Ukraine have resulted in a real war. Can such thing happen in Belarus?

- Let’s not confuse cause with consequence. The war was predetermined by Moscow’s great-power ambitions, and propaganda is only preliminary bombardment. By the way, if we fell such barrage on Belarus, we are to expect “little green men”.

But Putin lost his fight for Ukraine, and Kremlin will be trying to recover and reconcile with the West. And some time later Putin might need not a small victorious war but shall want to have an annexation – revenge at the post-Soviet area in relation to unprotected Belarus.

However, while Lukashenka is still in hold of the situation there is no need for Moscow to turn him aside or create political turbulence. But if in result of economic shocks situation in Belarus is destabilized or for some reason the presidential post turns out to be empty, then Moscow will try to lay hands on Belarus at lightning speed.

- Is Lukashenka capable of noticing the threats of information occupation and give adequate reaction, i.e. to eliminate them? Or is it that the existing situation is only beneficial for him?

- Lukashenka is perfectly aware of risks that Russian propaganda aggression poses. But he can’t adequately respond to them. He is afraid of Moscow and won’t venture to turn them off; on the other hand, he is afraid to give freedom to the independent media.

- Which steps should be taken to provide information security of Belarus in the media sphere?

- The state should have a modern doctrine of information security. Belarus has such documents, but Belarusan retrogressive authorities used them against independent media and against the Western imperialism, though the real threat is at the opposite side.

In this situation propaganda apparatus is of no use. During the last few months it was the production of independent media that served as a counterbalance for Russian information aggression, and it would be logical to provide free space for their development in order to mould national self-consciousness. Expansion happens in minds; there is no separatism in Lvov, where Ukrainian moods are strong. Whereas in Belarus the level of national self-consciousness, national identity is critically low.

To provide real information security for Belarus a different political regime is required – different from the Soviet model and independent from Moscow.