Uladzimir Matskevich: Putin is driven into the corner

The Boeing-777 catastrophe can speed up the end of the anti-terror operation, but only in case Russian authorities drop the idea of invasion into Ukraine and declaring a war against the whole world.

Putin is offering excuses for the circumstances in which Russian gunmen destroyed Malaysian Boeing-777 in the Ukrainian sky with passengers onboard. International community, which looked upon the Russia-Ukraine war as upon a local conflict, now perceives the deaths of their citizens as a threat that Russia poses to the whole world.

Uladzimir Matskevich, the head of the Board of the International Consortium “EuroBelarus”, told EuroBelarus Information Serviceabout the destruction of the Boeing-777 and its consequences for Ukraine, Russia and the whole world.

- Why did destruction of the Malaysian Boeing-777 transform a local Russia-Ukraine military conflict into a mondial problem?

-There is a clear answer why: first of all, the airliner which has no connection to the conflict whatsoever is destroyed; almost three hundred people died, and most of them are EU citizens. Thus, basically all international norms and agreements have been disrupted.

The destruction of Boeing-777 is a bandit terroristic action that was executed by mistake and inadvertently.

- But during the armed confrontation in Ukraine thousands have already died: Ukrainian soldiers, Russian gunmen, and – what is more frightening – civilians. Comparing with these figures, the death of 300 more people is, however cynical it may sound, a drop in the ocean. The world leaders appealed to Putin’s conscience, introduced sanctions against Russia, but did it with restraint. What has changed?

- The war launched by Russia in Ukraine, can be viewed as a local armed confrontation. Officially, despite all the proofs of preparations, funding and supplies of weaponry to the gunmen, Russia denied its participation in the military conflict at the east of Ukraine, and the West had to take the official Kremlin position into account.

The international community looked upon Russia-Ukraine conflict as upon a local one, no matter how many victims it caused; it was only Russian propaganda that pictured it as Russia’s confrontation against the whole world.

The position of the West didn’t change until the terrorists shot down the airliner Boeing-777. It gave the US possibility to promulgate the data collected by American secret services from other sources, and all the collected data gave the leaders of the world countries a possibility to make explicit statements.

The catastrophe itself served as a reason to bring all the facts about Russia’s participation in the armed confrontation with Ukraine to the public, even though impartial observers and analysts have already known all about preparation of gunmen, funding and weapon.

- Due to the destruction of Boeing-777 Putin made a special video-statement at night. But in this statement Russian president made Ukraine responsible for the ruination of the airliner, saying that if Ukraine didn’t renew an anti-terror operation, nothing bad would have happened. What Putin statement is about then?

- His statement has no sense; it is a mere attempt to save his face and be justified. It is no coincidence that the statement was issued after the phone talks with the leaders of the G8 countries.

Though Putin doesn’t deny the fact of Russia’s participation in the destruction of the airliner, he tries to put all the blame for it on the anti-terror operation renewed by Ukraine.

Nevertheless, Putin is lying, as the anti-terror operation organized by the Ukrainian authorities in Donetsk and Lugansk regions is reasonable and justifiable as a response to the dreadful bandit invasion of Russian gunmen who got a command from Kremlin; any European state wouldn’t leave such aggression unattended.

Putin is driven into the corner, so he has nothing to do but to justify himself. Putin doesn’t have any chances to retreat, and that what G8 pointed him out during the phone call.

- The catastrophe of Boeing-777 put an end to the hybrid war, assumes Ukrainian journalist Vitaly Portnikov. Putin is facing a hard choice: either to stop a military invasion into Ukraine or to announce a full-scale war. Does Kremlin have a third variant?

- I can only agree with it partially. On a large scale, the catastrophe saved the gunmen from their total annihilation. Now, when Russia and Putin have to stop supplying Russian gunmen with weaponry, the anti-terror operation will soon end, and its results are obvious. The gunmen will surrender only to be captured and fall under the jurisdiction of Ukraine, not Russia. And here Kremlin has only two options. As Kremlin doesn’t want for the information that the gunmen have to be disclosed, their fate in Russia can be easily predicted: the gunmen will either be isolated or destroyed. And the second option is to be captured in Ukraine, which enhances the chances of the gunmen to survive.

All local wars that have been taking place in the world over the last decades were international, but they were not interstate. If Russia dares to introduce troops into Ukraine, NATO will have to respond to this step. But if it happens, it will mean that Putin is ready to sacrifice millions of lives in exchange for his personal imperial ambitions.

I can’t really exclude this scenario, but the chances are really low.

- What consequences will the destruction of Boeing-777 have for the world order?

- We will have to analyze the consequences.

The defeat in the Ukraine-Russia conflict will have consequences for the Russia itself and can lead to the breakdown of the Russian Federation, which in its turn will have unpredictable consequences that can affect the whole world.

The very fact that the conflict has appeared requires the balance of forces in the world to be reviewed.

Russia will be excluded from G8. It denounced a number of agreements with the EU and the US and can be viewed as an ally to the world leading countries.

Certainly, the question about the efficiency of the UN Security Council is open, as Russia is blocking all peacemaking initiatives.

A new world order is coming into effect, and it is very different from the one established after the World War II, the fall of the Berlin Wall, and the breakdown of the Soviet Union. If Putin’s attempts to arrange and strengthen BRICS will be successful, this alliance will oppose the world leading economic bloc (US, EU, and G8). I’m not sure that BRICS will turn into a world power, but now Russia will be trying to do that; all the more that it is in China’s interests as well.