Pavel Usov: If Russia breaks Ukraine’s resistance, other post-Soviet countries will surrender

via-midgard.info

The West has to prepare to the serious and prolonged confrontation with Russia, which will end in global changes in the civilisation.

Vladimir Putin slipped out a statement that if Russia wanted to “Kiev could be conquered in two weeks”. And it was the President of the European Commission Jose Manuel Barroso that Putin shared these words with. Later, the assistant of the Russian President Yuri Ushakov asserted that the phrase was taken out of context and had a different meaning.

We have heard a lot of Freudian slips from the Russian authorities recently, for example, when Vladimir Putin announced that Kazakhstan never had its own statehood, and Vladimir Zhirinovsky directly declared, “after Ukraine we will seize Kazakhstan”.

How far can Putin go in rebuilding new Russian empire with weapon and blood? May the chase after the new empire lead to Russia’s self-destruction? Why is the West fighting against the Russian army with loud statements?

Pavel Usov, Doctor of Political Sciences, answered the questions of the “EuroBelarus” Information Service.

- Putin blurted to the President of the European Commission Jose Manuel Barroso that if Russia wanted, “Kiev could be conquered in two weeks”, by this voicing its secret wishes. How far can Russian militant imperialism go towards Ukraine?

It has been repeatedly said that only force can stop Russian expansion.

As to the plans towards Ukraine, they are related to its territorial fragmentation and establishment of full political control over the southeastern part of the country, transforming it into a geopolitical “stub” that would consist mainly of the Western Ukraine.

- Kremlin doesn’t plan to stop with Ukraine, which is evident from the words of Vladimir Zhirinovsky: “After Ukraine we will seize Kazakhstan”. However absurd this figure might seem, his words always tend to come true. Even Putin said that Kazakhstan never had its own statehood. Does it mean that Kazakhstan is Russia’s next goal?

- Surely, if Russia breaks Ukraine’s resistance, other post-Soviet countries will surrender without fighting. No one will dare to openly resist Moscow, and it will become an undeniable owner of yet independent countries. In their turn, the leaders of these countries are hoping that they will either escape Ukraine’s fate, or that they’ll manage to make a deal with Russia, or, at the worst, swear allegiance and become satraps.

- Zbigniew Brzezinski believes that next Russia’s goal is Baltic States. Anyway, everyone is sure that Russia is ready to rebuild new Russian empire with weapon and blood. Why does the West make no attempts to stop Russian fascism at the beginning?

- There are a number of explanations to the sluggish attitude of the western states towards what is happening in Ukraine and Russia. First, western politicians are trying to rationally treat Russia and its actions, as they are convinced that they can come to an agreement and find the way-out, though it is common knowledge that “For the insight of Russia you should not use your brain”.

Secondly, western politicians have nice comfortable lives and they simply don’t want to fill the head with other people’s problems, so they are just ignored. The problem with the West is that it starts seeing and understanding the essence of the situation when it is too late. I’m sure that Moscow has studied this problem and is using it now to reach this factor for reaching its goals. Russia has more than enough time before the EU starts acting.

The only thing that came as a surprise for Moscow is the downed Boeing. This tragedy made the West look differently at the Ukrainian problem. I can say with confidence that if it hadn’t happened, then the sanctions that are acting against Russia now wouldn’t be introduced.

Now second round of games with the West came into force: after diplomatic manipulations are no longer able to trick Europe and the USA, nuclear war became a new rhetoric, aimed at demonstrating Europe that Russia has nothing to lose. Unfortunately, we have to admit that the level of madness in Kremlin reached its culmination, making it impossible to predict Putin’s further actions, so I wouldn’t rely on his sensibility.

That is why the West has to prepare to serious and prolonged confrontation with Russia, which will end in global changes in the civilization.

- Often one can hear that Russia will soon dissolve on its own. But personally I see no signs of that: Russian soldiers are dying in Ukraine; imperial moods in Russia are growing. To where is Russia moving?

- Foreign expansion is but natural for the authoritarian Russia. On the one hand, it creates a mobilization potential for the regime, and on the other – disrupts economy and social stability. Stability of the authorities will be depending on the successes on the front and on how long it will be able to make Russian society believe that their absurd decisions and correct, as well as make it obey these decisions.

I think that Putin counted on a small victorious war, as it happened with Georgia. But the war in Ukraine is turning into a prolonged and bloody one, and includes direct confrontation with the West. It is quite possible that if the conflict grows further, then Russia will repeat the fate of the Russian Empire during the World War I. Even if Russia wins the war against Ukraine and seizes considerable territories of the country, they have to be maintained, while the absence of funds for that will result in the growth of discontent. Hungry and evil people could only be kept by the extensive penal system.

All this requires huge resources and forces, which will exhaust the economy. To withdraw extra money and control the population the state will extend its functions as much as possible, basically turning into a totalitarian state, which will lead to destruction. If Russia doesn’t transform into a democratic state (which is hardly possible), then in the next 10-15 years it stops its existence in the form that it exists now.

- Belarus still retains its conventional neutrality in the Russia-Ukraine war; however, if the conflict is escalated further, Belarus will turn into a buffer state – not even between the EU and Russia, but between NATO and Russia. What are the threats for Belarus if the war grows further?

- We need to understand that Russia is interested in Belarus’ direct involvement into the conflict, all the more if it grows further. First, it needs soldiers of a different state, as the increased losses in Russia’s army might bring negative consequences. Secondly, it is required for the propaganda, which aims at “the formation of broad antifascist and anti-western front”. Thirdly, it will be a powerful proof of Russia’s foreign policy success.

If we take into account the possibility of confrontation with the West, Belarus can become a military place of arms for the Russian army.