Anatol Taras: The fate of the whole Eastern Europe is now decided at the Ukrainian territory

Russia will repeat the fate of the Soviet Union. Not tomorrow, not in a month and not even in a year; but in the near-term outlook – in 4-5 years.

Bodies of 300 killed Russian soldiers now lie near Ilovaisk in Donetsk region, and no one took them away so far. Why is it so? Ask the dead who will win in this war.

What will happen next and when the truce will come? Anatol Taras, the famous Belarusan researcher, writer, and professor told “EuroBelarus” Information Service about his vision of the situation with the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

“Where are separatists?”

- First, the situation in Ukraine is so complicated that it is impossible to describe. Secondly, everyone has his or her own opinion about it. I think that this is the continuation of the ancient history, as it happened several times: when Muscovy or Russia rose a little to their feet, they immediately started occupying new territory.

Today, as we can see, nobody needs territory itself but rather needs control over the territory. Belarus is a good example: why conquer it, if it is developing according to Moscow politics? But if the political vector changes, we will face the Ukrainian situation, or even worse.

In Ukraine, as soon as people tried to get rid of Moscow bonds and think for themselves, Moscow immediately started its aggressions, or, as they say now, lead a “combined war”, or “information and psychological” war and support separatists…

When I was watching TV, I asked myself: who are separatists, if I can only see Cossacks, Chechens, Russian military men. And where are separatists then?

“The world won’t be the same place”

- I think that the fate of the whole Eastern Europe or even something more is now decided at the Ukrainian territory, as I always recall that the World War I started because of Serbia, which used to be a small poverty-stricken country of no interest to anyone. But the war did start and lasted for four years.

The World War II started because of Poland, which also used to be a poor country. It didn’t have industry or something else. But the war started and lasted for six years.

So why can’t the World War III start because of Ukraine, which is bigger than Serbia and Poland before the war altogether? It is possible; and it is disturbing.

Even if we believe that there won’t be world war, the world will still change in the next few years. It has become different already. A lot of things unthought-of have already happened.

Who could have imagined that there will be a war? But it is still going on. Who could have imagined that Moscow will lie in this way? Who could have imagined that the both sides will be that tough? But it is still present. The world won’t be the same.

“To kill and think what to do with the killed”

- Minsk sociologist Siarhei Nikaliuk says that “it is war in Ukraine that is the end of the XX century in the psychological, political, and economic sense”.

The beginning of the XXI century wasn’t very beautiful and wasn’t at all pleasant. And who knows, what the end will look like? I personally think that even if Russians seize Kiev and occupy the whole Ukraine on the left (East) bank of the Dnieper River as it used to be earlier, when Left-bank Ukraine belonged to the Imperial Russia, and Right Bank Ukraine belonged to the Austro-Hungarian Empire, Moscow will still be crushed. Russia will repeat the fate of the Soviet Union, I think.

Of course, it won’t happen tomorrow or in a year, but in the near-term outlook – in 4-5 years.

As to the negotiations in Minsk, the concluded truce leaves few hopes for the resolution of the conflict.

On the one hand, we are well aware that Russia is unwilling to lead a long-term war: there are no economic and human resources for that. But it still does, though nobody knows for how long will it be going on and when Kremlin starts thinking about the future.

So nobody will give you a transparent answer as to how the situation in Ukraine is going to develop. Even Moscow doesn’t know it, as the plans it builds don’t coincide with the reality.