Vitis Jurkontis: With Belarusan authorities’ rhetoric, experts should also look at their actions

Despite obvious thaw in Belarus-Europe relations, no considerable change happened. The reason of that is the lack of real steps towards the EU on the part of the official Minsk.

Geopolitical crisis, which happened in result of the Ukrainian events, as well as the obvious thaw in Belarus-Europe relations, prompted a number of experts to talk about future strengthening of bilateral cooperation and even about Belarus’ potential turn towards the EU. The prospects of Belarusan foreign policy was broadly discussed during the 4th International Congress of Belarusian Studies that took place in Kaunas earlier in October. EuroBelarus Information Service asked Vitis Jurkontis, teacher in the Vilnius University, M.A. in political science, to share his viewpoint on this issue.

- Should we expect Belarus to turn towards Europe in short-term outlook?

- On the large scale, now we see the same balancing between two centers of power. Belarusan authorities are feigning peacemakers now, even though it is clear that they strongly depend on Russia in social, economic, cultural, and even military way. When the site for Ukraine-Russia negotiations was being chosen, Russian authorities preferred Minsk as the place where they feel more comfortable and homelike; and that says a lot. Thus, we shouldn’t build illusions regarding Belarus’ turn towards Europe. Having certain pain spots, Belarusan authorities are very careful and sometimes controversial in their comments regarding Crimea and everything that is happening in Ukraine. But we have to understand that there are three different audiences for the official Minsk. First is Kremlin, second – Belarusan citizens, and third – Brussels and its Western partners. Thus, foreign policy didn’t change much; it is the same, though Minsk is now more cautious about Russia’s influence, and that opened new possibilities for manipulating the issue of peacemaking.

- How long might the thaw in relations between Belarus and the EU be continued? Can it lead to something serious?

- There are countries that believe in the need to rescue Belarus e from Russia’s grip. But I think we should constantly remind them about 2009-2010. Now the same narrative is repeated. Apart from Belarusan authorities’ rhetoric all foreign experts should also take account of their real actions: the way Belarus voted in the UN General Assembly, what military bases are disposed in Belarus, who its partner in protecting air space is.

- And arrests of political opponents are continuing in Belarus…

- Of course, we should take it into account as well. That is why Brussels should take principal stance on Belarusan question. It doesn’t mean that the official Minsk should be isolated – if we look at the scale and directions of trade turnover Belarus isn’t isolated at all. Even if we consider Lithuania-Belarus pragmatic relations – Belarusan side didn’t make any steps forward even on some nonpolitical issues that could demonstrate benevolence of the Belarusan side, such as building of Astravets nuclear power plant. So it turns out that Belarus isn’t a well-disposed neighbor itself. Economic relations are left for businessmen, and political expectations remain the same: to release all political prisoners, rehabilitate them, and change the situation with human rights in the country. It used to be on the agenda in Brussels-Minsk relations, and it should remain there.