Andrei Yahorau: Kremlin won’t accept pro-European choice of “Eastern Partnership” countries

It is too early to say that elections in Moldova ended in convincing victory of the European forces: kickback can happen at any moment.

At the parliamentary election in Moldova parties standing for integration with the EU left communists and socialists behind. Liberal and democratic, Democratic, and Liberal parties won almost 45 per cent of votes against 39 per cent of their opponents who find cooperation with Russia and the Customs Union more suitable. However, too weak advantage doesn’t guarantee that the European choice is irreversible; kickback can happen at any moment if democratic parties don’t find compromise in sharing deputies’ portfolio.

European choice preserved by Moldova instills hope that the country might become a successful example of Europeanization.

What does the victory of the European forces at the elections mean for Moldova and for the “Eastern Partnership” countries? How will Moldova’s geopolitical choice influence the geopolitical situation in the region? Will Kremlin accept that it has lost its former satellite? Andrei Yahorau, the director of the Center for European Transformation, answers the questions of the “EuroBelarus” Information Service:

- Pro-European forces are getting majority in the Moldavian Parliament. What does the victory of European forces mean for Moldova?

- For Moldova this victory means that its policy on closer relations with the EU started with the EU Association Agreement.

However, according to the results of the parliamentary election European majority in parliament has very insignificant edge, which means that when the new government is to be formed and the future development strategy is decided on some problems might appear. The situation can develop into an inner-political crisis if democratic parties won’t be able to form a stable coalition.

- The observers claim that Moldova has preferred European vector of development to the Russian one. How will Moldovan geopolitical choice influence the situation in the region?

- Any kickback might have a negative impact on the situation in the “Eastern Partnership”: it would add to the spread of the crisis in the EaP and slightly affect other countries. European choice preserved by Moldova instills positive hope that the country might become a successful example of Europeanization.

- On the threshold of the election Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claimed that Chisinau is moving towards “nondemocratic direction”, by which he meant the EU Association Agreement signed by Moldova. Will Kremlin accept the loss of Moldova?

- Kremlin won’t accept pro-European choice of any “Eastern Partnership” country. Of course, Russia will do everything to make Moldova’s life as difficult as possible if not block it at all. The country has already survived hardship due to the loss of the CIS market and access to the Russian market, and now Russia will be exerting its influence through the problem zones within Moldova – for example, through Gagauzia.

There were provocations before elections as well; Moldavian special services neutralized groups of citizens who were preparing disorders after the election campaign. Everyone understands who stands behind these provocations.

Parliamentary elections demonstrated general instability of the situation in the country; a kickback might happen at any moment. It is too early to say that the election finished with the convincing victory of the European forces. If Russia’s pressure continues to grow, and deputies form a new group in the parliament, European forces won’t be able to get majority. Such scenario is quite real, and Moscow will do its utmost to realize it.