Belarusan authorities fear other states will get interested in Belarus’ military policy

Amid the conflict in Ukraine and protracted Russia-West confrontation a crisis of trust is building up in the post-Soviet space, which might lead to an increase in "spy scandals" in the region.

Last week, the media reported that the Belarusan KGB detained a well-known military commentator, Alexander Alesin.

According to unofficial information, Alesin was accused of spying for another state. The KGB neither confirmed nor denied this information. Alesin, who writes for Belarusy i Rynok, is a popular commentator on military issues, the Belarusan army, and the Ministry of Defence in the independent Belarusan media. He has also been quoted by publications outside Belarus, including from Russia.

Russian media has noted probable changes in its ally’s military doctrine, paying special attention to how experts interpreted the recent appointment of the Defence Minister in Belarus Russian journalists have quoted some military experts as saying that Lukashenka feared a repetition of the Crimean scenario in Belarus, and that the Belarusan army was preparing to repel possible Russian aggression in the "hybrid war".

In addition, the Russian media have referred to some internal sources in the Belarusan Defence Ministry which confirmed the authorities’ concerns about Russia’s aggression vis-a-vis Ukraine. However, it is doubtful that they really had a source in the Belarusan Defence agency, as all the commentaries from the “Belarusan sources” in the Russian media contained publicly available information which had already been voiced by various Belarusan independent analysts, including Alesin.

For example, Alesin’s most recent comments concerned the Belarusan army’s combat capability; changes in the modernisation policy due to the leadership change at the Defence Ministry; potential cooperation between the Ukrainian "Motor Sich" and the Belarusan Orsha Aircraft Repair Plant to supply military products to Russia; and about the Kremlin strengthening its military presence in Belarus.

It seems that mutual mistrust is growing between Minsk and Moscow, aggravated by the military conflicts in the region and sanctions confrontation between Russia and the West. Belarus is extremely wary of the rising interest from the Kremlin (and other neighbouring states) in her military-political processes . In addition, Belarus is starting to feel the negative effects of the EU-Russia confrontation due to the increasingly tense relations with her neighbours who have chosen the Euro-Atlantic integration path.

In addition, last week, the Lithuanian Prosecutor General’s Office announced the arrest of a Lithuanian army paramedic on suspicion of spying for Belarus. He is suspected of spying for the Main Intelligence Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Belarus. In November, the Prosecutor General of Lithuania reported that the Vilnius Regional Court would hear a criminal case against another Lithuanian citizen on charges of spying for Belarus. According to the Lithuanian Prosecutor’s Office, he was secretly sending documents from the state enterprise Oro navigacija to the MID General Staff of Belarus. Head of Lithuanian Security Department Gediminas Grin suggested that the Russian secret services may also have been interested in this information.

Belarus has recently been reviewing security on all her borders, including Russia. In September, President Lukashenka signed a decree to establish a border area with Russia – until then there was no border, customs control, or border zone regime.

Amid growing mistrust among states in the post-Soviet region, Belarus is bolstering the role of the security agencies and special services in the state’s policy.

Solidarity with Belarus Information Office