Valery Karbalevich: After the president campaign we could get a new type of regime

So far authoritarian regime that was supported by the majority of population was reigning in Belarus; after the election it might be minority that is the basis.

President election is most likely to take place on November 15.

The head of the central election committee Lidzia Jarmoshyna has already voiced central clauses of the election campaign: nomination of approximately 10 candidates for presidency, which would lead to registration of four of them. Jarmoshyna rejects any possibility of mass protests after the president campaign, unless they are organized from the outside.

Generally, the main slogans of the main candidate in the election campaign have also been voiced: keeper of peace and stability in Belarus.

What scenario might the president election 2015 follow? EuroBelarus Information Service is trying to understand that together with the political scientist Valery Karbalevich.

- The most possible date for the president election was voiced – November 15. Does it mean that there will be no surprises with change of the election date?

- In theory we cannot exclude anything; however, unless some force-majeur situation happens there is no sense in changing it. Time is required for the people to get over the devaluation: the further from the new-year events the better for the Belarusan regime.

- Recently Lidzia Jarmoshyna has voiced central clauses of the election campaign, from which we can make a conclusion that the authorities are planning to repeat the scenario of 2010 with the only difference – there are only four candidates who will enter the homestretch. What is the sense of that?

- I would be careful about the hypotheses voiced by Jarmoshyna. We can’t say that the president campaign is under full control; sometimes the authorities have to adjust and react to the situation. For now we have the situation when Lukashenka, Haidukevich, Niakliaeu, and Liabedzka will enter the president election campaign; so Jarmoshyna is not very novel in her “predictions”.

- I.e. at this stage the opposition isn’t ready for nomination of a single candidate, is it?

- No, it isn’t. Yet it has several months to solve this issue; but personally, I see no particular desire to get out of this situation with dignity.

- Unlike the former campaigns, now the question about changing the electoral law. Why is it so?

- Liabedzka is talking about fair election as of his main priority. However, these talks will bring no real effect. President election is very important for the authorities; that is why no one will change the electoral law towards democracy. However, I cannot exclude the possibility of toughening the electoral legislation and complicating the election campaign for the opposition by publishing special decree or even a special ruling of the central election committee.

- How will the authorities try to overcome the political apathy in the society, which is only increasing with the decrease of the living standard of the population?

- Why do the authorities need to fight the apathy at all? The atmosphere of despair is to the benefit of the authorities, so they will support it in every way.

As to the turnout at the polling stations, it is not that big a problem. We have an experience of the parliamentary campaign 2012, when despite the atmosphere of hopelessness the authorities managed to finalize the parliamentary campaign.

- Recently there were rumors that Kremlin is looking for a new substitute to Lukashenka. Is there at least a drop of truth in these rumors?

- I think these rumors have different aims. It looks like a certain game of Moscow, which is proved by the statement made by the Russian Ambassador to Belarus Surikov, who on the threshold of the New Year said that he doesn’t know whether Lukashenka would enter the president election. The response to this statement followed, in which Lukashenka clearly explained that we would enter the election even if the whole world was against it, and would win it if he wanted.

The conclusion we can make from it is that rumors from the Russian journalists re Moscow’s search for a substitute of Lukashenka is Kremlin’s game aiming at exerting pressure on Lukashenka for one more time so that to make him nervous and demonstrate that he is dependent on Russia.

- What peculiarities will the forthcoming president campaign have?

- If we come from the present-day situation, there are all grounds to say that the president campaign will be traditional and the result of it will be traditional as well. The main factor that might introduce changes and surprises to the president campaign is the economic situation. It is for the first time that two factors came together: the election campaign and the economic crisis, which had never happened in Belarus before. This is a new situation that creates certain intrigue, the one that is not about Lukashenka’s winning or losing.

After the president campaign we might get a new type of regime. Before that we had an authoritarian regime that was based on the majority of population. After the election campaign we might get an authoritarian regime disapproved by the majority and supported by the minority, which means that to retain power the authorities will need to toughen the repression mechanisms.