Lukashenka plans to keep status quo until end of presidential elections

During a special session of the House of Representatives of the National Assembly of Belarus, President Lukashenka introduced Andrei Kabiakou as the new prime minister.

To date, the Belarusan authorities lack a vision for the country’s development which could be presented as an election program for president Lukashenka. The head of state is trying to focus the government’s attention on short-term tasks to control the current socioeconomic situation which is possible thanks to foreign borrowing. The urgent need for external financing to keep household income at an acceptable level before the end of the presidential campaign is pushing official Minsk to act more vigorously in order to normalise relations with the European Union and United States.

While introducing the new prime minister to the parliament, Lukashenka defined the main goals for Belarus’ socioeconomic and foreign policy development for the next year. Some experts noticed that the president’s speech contained a number of points of his program for the presidential election which is due to take place before November 2015. However, so far neither Lukashenka nor the government has any precise ideas on how to develop the country during the next five years which could be presented as an election program.

The president stated that he is waiting for fresh ideas from the government to develop a socioeconomic development program for 2016-2020. However, these ideas should be based on the current socioeconomic model: “Nothing new, we have been through this all”.

However, during his speech to parliament, president Lukashenka only gave answers on how to solve short-term socioeconomic development problems so as to conserve the current situation up until the end of the presidential campaign: “The most important thing is to not worsen the situation but also not to break the basic principles and laws of economics. I am not talking about market or administrative measures – this is not important. To not break them – in order for the enterprises not to be affected, for them not to close and not to put people out on the street”.

However, domestic resources have already proven insufficient for maintaining the current socioeconomic situation. During the special session, president Lukashenka assured deputies that he is trying to further normalise relations with western capitals. Ahead of presidential campaigns, official Minsk typically tries to improve its relations with the EU and US, although the Belarusan authorities’ main motivation for improving those relations is to find foreign borrowing. In addition, the Belarusan authorities intended to issue new Eurobonds this year but most likely they will abandon this idea because of the unacceptable interest rate.

The Kremlin continues to be official Minsk’s sole creditor. However, the head of state only brought up the topic of integration at the level of the Eurasian Economic Union when noting “one can notice blatant cases of one-sided actions of the participants of the Union sidestepping current agreements”. This year, the Belarusan authorities are trying to prepare for yet another “trade war” with its main partner, Russia, urging the state machine to act “harshly and preemptively in defence of national interests”.

Besides, as expected, the economic problems on the Russian market, which is the biggest market of the Eurasian Economic Union, means that this project is becoming less attractive for official Minsk. The President has chiefly tasked the new government with decreasing dependence on Russia and diversifying exports: “If we solve just one problem – the diversification of exports (in the sense of the falling sales of our goods in Russia) – and reorient our production to other markets, we will no longer have economic and financial collapses. That’s why diversifying exports is the most important issue.”

However, the president’s statements on smoothing relations with the West do not mean changes in domestic policy. The head of state underlined that he is not going to change anything about how elections are conducted, an issue which is traditionally criticised by human rights activists, opponents of the Belarusan authorities, and international observers: “They give us hints that we should be made to hold the election using international standards. Calm down – the election in Belarus will take place with exceptional honesty on the basis of the Constitution”. At the same time, the president has emphasised his reluctance to bring forward the elections date despite a number of reasons which push Belarusan authorities to do so.

Therefore, in the near future, it should be expected that official Minsk will make attempts to normalise relations with the West, which would then allow the Belarusan authorities to open up new opportunities for foreign borrowing.

Solidarity with Belarus Information Office