Official Minsk wants to resist Kremlin's imperial ambitions risking to get retaliation in response

While Belarus can hardly rearm Ukraine, Minsk clearly wants to maintain good ties with Kyiv and help Ukraine survive as a state. In doing so, Belarus risks enraging the Kremlin, Siarhei Bohdan writes.

On Tuesday, a provocative article appeared in the pro-Kremlin Russian daily, Vzglyad. It demanded that Belarus hold a referendum on becoming a part of Russia or else face Ukraine's fate.

The article referred to Aliaksandr Lukashenka's recent interview with Bloomberg, in which he once more cautiously expressed his sympathy for Kyiv and criticised the annexation of Crimea.

Moscow knows these are not just words. Minsk has avoided using the strategic means at its disposal - like its control of the Ukrainian oil products market - to destabilise the neighbouring country. Instead, it has enhanced economic cooperation with Kyiv and even sold military equipment to Ukraine.

Strategically important support

Belarus has been consistent in supporting Ukraine since the Crimea crisis. In March 2014, Minsk could have made the life of Kyiv's new leadership much harder by demanding advance payments for oil products. Because Belarusan firms control about 60% of the oil goods market in Ukraine, this step would have further weakened Kyiv's bankrupt government. Instead, the Belarusan side increased the supply of oil products and offered delayed payments to its neighbour.

In January 2015, the Belarusan ambassador to Kyiv Valiantsin Vialichka announced that Belarusan firms would conduct transactions in the Ukrainian national currency. Even though this decision facilitated better bilateral trade between the two countries, it entailed political and economic risks for Belarus. Minsk risked retaliation by the Kremlin, on the one hand, and financial losses due to the unstable exchange rate of the Ukrainian hryvna, on the other.

Small but important supplies

Belarusan-Ukrainian trade in military or dual-use goods further proves that Minsk has not succumbed to Moscow's pressure. As the crisis in Ukraine unfolded, the media reported that Belarus increased contact with Ukrainian defence firms, discussed joint ventures as well as the transfer of new technologies.

Less known is the growth in the deliveries of Belarusan military-relevant equipment, spare parts, and weapons components to Ukraine. According to Ihor Tyshkevich of Ukrainian Hvylya.net, the official bilateral trade statistics demonstrates a significant increase in "unspecified" Belarusan exports of an apparent military character. The military components of exports are usually hidden in official statistics under the category of “other.”

While the volume of military-relevant exports remains modest, these transfers may have played an important role in boosting Ukraine's defence by satisfying very specific needs of the Ukrainian army. For example, one of the problems Kyiv faced last year was a lack of engines and batteries for its armoured vehicles. Tyshkevich analysed official statistics and found out that the export of “other” engines from Belarus to Ukraine increased from $1.1m in 2013 to $1.67m in 2014. The export of spare parts for “other” engines has increased twofold, reaching $2.84m in trade.

Since the beginning of the war in Eastern Ukraine, Belarus has been supplying Ukraine with vehicle batteries. In 2013 Ukraine did not import any of these batteries from Belarus. In the second half of 2014, Minsk exported $125,000 worth of them. In 2014, Belarus also sold $2.19m worth of electrical engines, which can be used in tank turrets. It's an impressive rate of growth when compared to the previous year, in which only $16,000 worth of electrical engines were sold, writes Hlylya.net.

Minsk has also supplied Kyiv with optical and electronic devices, one of the specialisations of the Belarusan defence industry. According to official statistics quoted by Tyshkevich, last year Belarus delivered $1.7m (in 2013 - $184,000) worth of binoculars, monoculars and thermographic cameras to Ukraine, gun sights to the tune of around $1m, as well as range finders, monitors and other optic and electronic components for military equipment valued at over $1.1m.

Military trucks and jets

Belarusan exports also included some ready-to-use military equipment. There are indications that Kyiv bought Minsk Wheel Tractor Plant (MZKT) chassis for its missile and artillery systems. Despite the slowdown in the Russian market and the corresponding decline in Russian military purchases from MZKT, the plant has managed to earn more money in July-September 2014 than in the entire previous year – at least partly due to the growth in exports to Ukraine.

The Minsk Truck Plant's (MAZ) sales to the Ukrainian armed forces are openly publicised. In July 2014, Ukraine's Internal Affairs Minister Arsen Avakov revealed that the Ukrainian National Guard had placed orders for trucks and trailers from Belarus, and the media reported on a delivery of 44 new MAZ trucks. In October 2014, the National Guard reportedly bought 27 more MAZ trucks and several dozen trailers from Minsk.

Even more strategically important was Belarus-Ukraine cooperation in the field of aviation. The Belarusan 558th Baranovichi aircraft repair factory may have been speaking about Ukraine when it announced a $66m overhauling of MiG-29s for a “foreign customer.” The announcement coincided with the Ukrainian army receiving several overhauled MiG-29s in December 2014 and January 2015. The Moscow-based Nezavisimaya Gazeta commented that the Belarusans may have been behind the restoration of the Ukrainian aircraft.

Minsk has also dramatically increased exports of “flying vehicles” and parts for them, which likely includes drones, to Ukraine. If in 2013, Belarus's respective exports amounted to $12,000, in 2014, Minsk earned more than $5m, while in January-March 2015 – almost $4m, reports Hvylya.net.

Much for Belarus but too little for Ukraine?

The full scale of these deliveries remains unknown. Recently, however, the head of the Belarusan Military Industrial Committee Siarhei Hurulyou commented on the rapid growth of defence exports. According to him, the national defence industry has earned more than $800m through exports last year. Undoubtedly, a portion of these military and dual-use exports went to Ukraine.

Russian daily Nezavisimaya Gazeta downplayed the significance of Belarus's military exports. It quotes a Russian military expert saying that Belarus “currently cannot provide large-scale aid in re-arming the Ukrainian armed forces because its specialization includes only a limited range of defence products.”

While Belarus can hardly rearm Ukraine, Minsk seems to be helping as much as it can. Belarus clearly wants to maintain good ties with Kyiv and hopes to help Ukraine survive as a state. In doing so, Belarus risks enraging the Kremlin, who can easily retaliate against the Belarusan leadership.

Such policies prove that the noisy battles of rhetoric between Minsk and Moscow are not all just words. Belarus also pursues its own policies, even as it pays attention to Russia's own sensitivities and is treading carefully. Minsk is clearly willing to sabotage and resist the Kremlin's regional ambitions, so long as they do not suit them.

Originally published at BelarusDigest