Andrei Yeliseyeu: Ukraine is more beneficial as China’s jumping-off place to EU market than Belarus

Xi Jinping, as it used to be before, comes to Belarus during the presidential elections. However, we shouldn’t count on his serious financial support in this regard.

On May 10-12 PRC’s President Xi Jinping will come to Belarus. To organize this visit to Minsk PRC’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi and other Chinese comrades paid an official visit to Minsk.

The current state and prospects of Belarus-China relations in the interview with the “EuroBelarus” Information Service are commented by Andrei Yeliseyeu, an expert from the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies (BISS).

- Lukashenka has been talking about “strategic partnership” with China for a long time. What is this partnership about?

- It is tribute to the classification of foreign relations accepted in China. After the end of the Cold War China is pursuing the so-called “diplomacy of no enemies”, when no country in the world is viewed as an opponent. Depending on how developed the relations with this or that country are, China is naming bilateral cooperation as partnership of friendship and cooperation, constructive partnership, and so on. The crown of the conventional hierarchy is strategic partnership. China established such kind of relations with Russia in 2001, with Ukraine and Poland is 2011. Belarusan officials were aiming at naming the bilateral relations “strategic partnership” as early as possible for reasons of image so as to demonstrate the highest level of collaboration.

- On April 8-9 PRC’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi paid an official visit to Minsk. He was paving the way for another visit: on May 10-12 Belarus is expecting PRC’s President Xi Jinping. A visit of the head of state of any country is perceived as an event in Belarus. What is the aim of this visit with participation of one of the main actors at the world arena?

- Relations with Belarus are not as important for China so as to organize the visit of the PRC’s President Xi Jinping for visiting only Belarus. As it was back in 2010, Xi Jinping will come to Belarus together with his visit to Moscow. This time Chinese leader with meet Putin due to celebrations of the 70^th anniversary of victory in the war, and only then he is to come to Belarus.

The task of the Belarusan side is to give second wind to realization of main common projects with the help of the Xi Jinping’s visit. Of course, pompous words will be said about the more distant project – New Silk Route, the core of which is construction of roads, bridges, and railways from Asia to Europe.

Some other practical problems are: organization of visa-free travelling to China for Belarusans and opening of direct air communication from Minsk to Beijing. Lukashenka will personally express his gratitude for the provided help during harsh economic times in December 2014 (a loan of $220 million) and will use this visit for demonstrating foreign support. Lukashenka is lucky with Xi Jinping’s visits since they turn out to be just at the presidential elections.

- How successful is economic cooperation between Minsk and Beijing? Although last year mutual volume of trade made about $3 billion, China provides no more than 4% of Belarusan commodity circulation, whereas red ink for Minsk is about $3 billion.

- The volume of trade with China exceeds common commodity circulation with the remaining developing countries altogether. In 2014 Belarus-China trade deficiency decreased a little in comparison with 2013. First, in relation to the increased sales of potash fertilizers Belarusan export has increased; secondly, import has decreased by about $500 million.

There are two main problems. First, the basis of export from Belarus to China is raw materials and goods with little added value. Secondly, coherent Chinese loans, when Belarus has to purchase 50-70% of goods for the project financed by Chinese banks in CPR. Last year Belarusan officials have finally realized the harmfulness of broad application of such type of loans. In my last research of Belarus-China relations I warned about it as early as in early 2013.

- Obviously, during the crisis Minsk hopes to borrow money from China in order to hold out. How realistic is such desire of Belarusan authorities?

- Sometimes CPR helps Belarus, and the loan allocated in December 2014 proves that. However, Beijing is not at all going to take large financial responsibilities upon itself. As even in relations with its close neighbor, Myanmar (and China-Myanmar relations were often referred to as brotherly, similar to Belarus-Russia cooperation) China didn’t provide any financial subsidies to its ally but mainly cared about its own benefits from common projects.

- Minsk expects Beijing to use Belarus as an area for promoting Chinese production at the European and EEU markets. Is Belarus capable of becoming a China’s jumping-off place to EU market?

- Expectations about jumping-off place to the EU are absolutely unjustified, whereas in case of EEU countries they are justified partially. Belarus doesn’t even have basic trade agreement on cooperation with the EU, not to mention the Free Trade Zone (FTZ) or closer institutional cooperation. That is why there is no benefit for CPR from promoting its production at the European market through Belarus. In this relation in future it is more beneficial for China to consider Ukraine as such jumping-off place due to the presence of agreement on FTZ. However, CPR is successfully developing economic relations with many European countries, including Poland.

As to the promotion of Chinese production to other EEU countries, in this case Belarus doesn’t have obvious advantages in comparison with Russia or Kazakhstan. The vivid example is more large-scale production of “Gili” cars in Kazakhstan than in Belarus.

- Experts talk about search for counterbalance that Minsk is trying to find in Beijing against the threat that comes from Moscow. Is it true or are these just fantasies?

- It would be naïve to assume that in case of aggressioAndrei Yeliseyeu: Ukraine is more beneficial as China’s jumping-off place to EU market than Belarus

Xi Jinping, as it used to be before, comes to Belarus during the presidential elections. However, we shouldn’t count on his serious financial support in this regard.

On May 10-12 PRC’s President Xi Jinping will come to Belarus. To organize this visit to Minsk PRC’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi and other Chinese comrades paid an official visit to Minsk.

The current state and prospects of Belarus-China relations in the interview with the “EuroBelarus” Information Service are commented by Andrei Yeliseyeu, an expert from the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies (BISS).

- Lukashenka has been talking about “strategic partnership” with China for a long time. What is this partnership about?

- It is tribute to the classification of foreign relations accepted in China. After the end of the Cold War China is pursuing the so-called “diplomacy of no enemies”, when no country in the world is viewed as an opponent. Depending on how developed the relations with this or that country are, China is naming bilateral cooperation as partnership of friendship and cooperation, constructive partnership, and so on. The crown of the conventional hierarchy is strategic partnership. China established such kind of relations with Russia in 2001, with Ukraine and Poland is 2011. Belarusan officials were aiming at naming the bilateral relations “strategic partnership” as early as possible for reasons of image so as to demonstrate the highest level of collaboration.

- On April 8-9 PRC’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi paid an official visit to Minsk. He was paving the way for another visit: on May 10-12 Belarus is expecting PRC’s President Xi Jinping. A visit of the head of state of any country is perceived as an event in Belarus. What is the aim of this visit with participation of one of the main actors at the world arena?

- Relations with Belarus are not as important for China so as to organize the visit of the PRC’s President Xi Jinping for visiting only Belarus. As it was back in 2010, Xi Jinping will come to Belarus together with his visit to Moscow. This time Chinese leader with meet Putin due to celebrations of the 70^th anniversary of victory in the war, and only then he is to come to Belarus.

The task of the Belarusan side is to give second wind to realization of main common projects with the help of the Xi Jinping’s visit. Of course, pompous words will be said about the more distant project – New Silk Route, the core of which is construction of roads, bridges, and railways from Asia to Europe.

Some other practical problems are: organization of visa-free travelling to China for Belarusans and opening of direct air communication from Minsk to Beijing. Lukashenka will personally express his gratitude for the provided help during harsh economic times in December 2014 (a loan of $220 million) and will use this visit for demonstrating foreign support. Lukashenka is lucky with Xi Jinping’s visits since they turn out to be just at the presidential elections.

- How successful is economic cooperation between Minsk and Beijing? Although last year mutual volume of trade made about $3 billion, China provides no more than 4% of Belarusan commodity circulation, whereas red ink for Minsk is about $3 billion.

- The volume of trade with China exceeds common commodity circulation with the remaining developing countries altogether. In 2014 Belarus-China trade deficiency decreased a little in comparison with 2013. First, in relation to the increased sales of potash fertilizers Belarusan export has increased; secondly, import has decreased by about $500 million.

There are two main problems. First, the basis of export from Belarus to China is raw materials and goods with little added value. Secondly, coherent Chinese loans, when Belarus has to purchase 50-70% of goods for the project financed by Chinese banks in CPR. Last year Belarusan officials have finally realized the harmfulness of broad application of such type of loans. In my last research of Belarus-China relations I warned about it as early as in early 2013.

- Obviously, during the crisis Minsk hopes to borrow money from China in order to hold out. How realistic is such desire of Belarusan authorities?

- Sometimes CPR helps Belarus, and the loan allocated in December 2014 proves that. However, Beijing is not at all going to take large financial responsibilities upon itself. As even in relations with its close neighbor, Myanmar (and China-Myanmar relations were often referred to as brotherly, similar to Belarus-Russia cooperation) China didn’t provide any financial subsidies to its ally but mainly cared about its own benefits from common projects.

- Minsk expects Beijing to use Belarus as an area for promoting Chinese production at the European and EEU markets. Is Belarus capable of becoming a China’s jumping-off place to EU market?

- Expectations about jumping-off place to the EU are absolutely unjustified, whereas in case of EEU countries they are justified partially. Belarus doesn’t even have basic trade agreement on cooperation with the EU, not to mention the Free Trade Zone (FTZ) or closer institutional cooperation. That is why there is no benefit for CPR from promoting its production at the European market through Belarus. In this relation in future it is more beneficial for China to consider Ukraine as such jumping-off place due to the presence of agreement on FTZ. However, CPR is successfully developing economic relations with many European countries, including Poland.

As to the promotion of Chinese production to other EEU countries, in this case Belarus doesn’t have obvious advantages in comparison with Russia or Kazakhstan. The vivid example is more large-scale production of “Gili” cars in Kazakhstan than in Belarus.

- Experts talk about search for counterbalance that Minsk is trying to find in Beijing against the threat that comes from Moscow. Is it true or are these just fantasies?

- It would be naïve to assume that in case of aggression towards Belarus on the part of Russia China will be seriously advocating Belarus’ sovereignty, such as introduction of economic sanctions against Russia. It would be wrong to seriously count on China as a counterbalance for the potential threat on the part of Russia.

n towards Belarus on the part of Russia China will be seriously advocating Belarus’ sovereignty, such as introduction of economic sanctions against Russia. It would be wrong to seriously count on China as a counterbalance for the potential threat on the part of Russia.