Leanid Zaika: Belarus shouldn’t expect export-import developments with India

Belarus’ main trade partners are Europe and Russia, while all the rest are just fantasies.

On June 3 Aliaksandr Lukashenka met with President of India Pranab Mukherjee.

The Belarusan leader said he believes that Belarus and India could step up cooperation in the production sector, power engineering, logistics, communications, bio and nanotechnologies, as well as develop joint production in spheres like pharmaceutics, information and communication technologies.

Belarus President suggested setting up vehicle production together with India, claiming that the organization of the joint production of buses, trucks, municipal vehicles, and road construction machines looks promising.

Pranab Mukherjee emphasized that India is ready to open a $100 million credit line for the implementation of joint projects with Belarus in the areas that will be outlined during the Belarusian-Indian high-level talks.

“Despite the fact that the trade and economic relations have been developing, there are big opportunities to intensify them. We need to diversify the sector of goods in trade in order to increase the bilateral trade which is currently at $400 million,” the Indian leader said.

Belarus and India signed a road map of bilateral cooperation and a number of other documents.

 What stands behind the visit of the President of India to Belarus? We should recall that on May 10-12 head of the CPR Xi Jinping, whose relations with India are not the best, came on a state visit to Belarus; and Lukashenka has recently visited Pakistan.

“EuroBelarus” Information Service discussed this topic with Leanid Zaika, the head of the analytical center “Strategia” (“Strategy”).

- Belarus is a small country; but at times it reaches giants. Recently the head of the China People’s Republic Xi Jinping visited Minsk; Lukashenka has just come from Pakistan. Relations in a triangle China-India-Pakistan are not the best; these are unfriendly countries. We need balance; but since China leader visited Belarus, the India President should absolutely visit our country. In respect to forming of the foreign policy, Belarusan Foreign Ministry should balance its foreign course. This is where the essence of the India President’s visit lies in.

- Thus, the visit of the head of India is more of a political than economic character, isn’t it?

- It is an attempt of the Belarusan Foreign Ministry to balance. My foreign colleagues claim that the fist nuclear war might start exactly between Pakistan and India, since this region is the most explosive. In the triangle China-India-Pakistan we shouldn’t turn into a small hare that is whirling between two lions.

But when it comes to economy, we can organize assemblage of anything: tractors, cars, seeders, winnowers, - will there be much sense in that?

- What do trade and economy relations between Belarus and India look like today?

- India isn’t even in the top-ten important foreign trade partners – these relations are impossible to interpret in terms of statistics. Belarusan statistics shows that there are about 20 countries with more or less interesting export-import, and India is not listed among them: trade flows are small.

Agriculture is very important for India, just like it is for Belarus. The difference is that in Belarus farmer has power, while India has to feed more than a billion people and needs agricultural equipment, fertilizers, and technologies (agriculture is built on manual labor there).

The Chinese have bought several tractors “Belarus” to get an amazing result of germination and crop capacity. But as it turned out, tractors can leave more than 100 million people out of work. That is why Belarusan tractors is the reason why paupers, proletariat, i.e. the poorest social layers appear. Belarusans don’t understand that, they think that tractors will only be welcomed and in demand.

Situation is quite complicated; Pakistan will be buying tractors, but the process will be slow. Besides, we have already been in an awful situation with Pakistan: we won a tender for supplying tractors, but it turned out that it was unprofitable for us to sell tractors.

Belarus shouldn’t expect export-import developments with India, since India is not on the list of 15-20 countries that are accounted by the Belarusan statistics.

In general, Asian tours of Belarusan authorities are confusing: instead of creating new brands, new types of cars, and new types of equipment we took some unfinished work and are trying to make money out of it.

- So the huge Indian market won’t open new economic opportunities for Belarus, will it?

- What is an Indian market? These are just castles in the air; main trade partners that Belarus has are Europe and Russia, while all the rest are just fantasies.

First one should try to send convoys of tractors to the north, to the east, to the west, and to the south. Let me say something about tractors in particular that will make Belarusan producers of tractors cry: China has a monopoly on tractors now; we won’t be able to get round China.

If I will try to express the actions of the Belarusan authorities with scientific terms, I would characterize them as clumsy, paradoxically inefficient decisions.