Aliaksandr Alesin: If we lose the army we can also lose the power and the country

The situation of unwinding a cold war will make Belarus fulfill its allied obligations to Russia: if one party is involved in hostilities, the other should support it.

On the eve of July 3, when the Independence Day is celebrated, Lukashenka held a number of personnel shifts in the Belarusan Army. The dismissal of the State Secretary of the Security Council Aliaksandr Miazhueu and assignation of the Acting State Secretary Stanislau Zas’ came as the biggest surprises.

What stands behind the personnel shifts in the Belarus’ armed forces? Military expert Aliaksandr Alesin answers the questions of “EuroBelarus” Information Service.

- “I can certainly say to our ill-wishers if there are still such people: that rattling the sabre near the Belarusan border is a waste of time”, - stated Lukashenka on the eve of July 3. How should we view personnel shifts in the armed forces in the light of this statement?

- Situation around Belarus is characterized with several risks. First of all, this is the situation in Ukraine, which is becoming more and more uncontrollable; as the KGB head said, armor and criminal elements are getting to Belarus more and more.

Aggravation of relations with NATO, the US, and Russia also has its risks, whereas Belarus is trying to stay neutral in this tangle of contradictions. It doesn’t want to spoil relations neither with the West, from where it plans to get loans and technologies, nor with Ukraine that is its second most important partner, nor with Russia. Now Lukashenka is in a quite complicated situation: he has to manoeuvre between the centers of power and not lose the face at the same time.

As I see it, Lukashenka mentioned the military block because Ukrainian situation was a big lesson for him. If you lose the army and don’t reform it you might lose power and, which is worst, lose the country, too. Assessing the situation at the Belarusan borders, Lukashenka doesn’t say it loud, but it is from this reticence that we conclude that defense should be strong. Recent measures for enhancing the military and industrial complex and development of the country’s own arms and equipment proves that he takes army’s modernization very seriously. All the more that Russia demonstrates willingness to substitute Belarusan army at the Belarusan territory with the Russian army. We see a tendency of disposing as much as possible of the Russian army in Belarus; and considering Belarus’ geopolitical stance, Russia wouldn’t mind disposing its military bases at our territory under pretence of Belarusan army’s weakening. In this situation Lukashenka has to fortify the Armed Forces; so for the key posts he selects and places people who are able to accomplish the assigned tasks. Appointments in the army are not directly linked to the forthcoming presidential campaign – they are of a long-term nature.

- The substitution of the State Secretary of the Security Council also happened for that reason, didn’t it?

- First it seemed to me that the dismissal and appointment of a new State Secretary of the Security Council happened because of the general modernization of the management of the armed forces. However, substitution of the State Secretary to the acting State Secretary demonstrates that there is some force-majeure situation. Lukashenka didn’t plan to substitute this figure – there is no free candidate, all of them organize election campaign. That is why the acting State Secretary who is going to have an eye over the situation without worsening it, will be a conductor of Lukashenka’s influence without making any independent steps has been appointed.

What could have happened with Miazhueu? It might be both some problems in his family and something as “lose of trust” if Miazhueu didn’t fulfill some Lukashenka’s instruction. These two reasons are possible in proportion of 60% to 40%.

- Belarus has become the center for regulating international conflicts. How justified is such self-appraisal?

- There is a lot of self-promotion there.

Belarus’ geopolitical stance makes it an ideal place for resolving international conflicts, since it will irritate neither Europe, nor Ukraine, nor Russia. Lukashenka took a course for normalization of relations with the West and stops being its irritator, so Belarus is quite appropriate for negotiations. Lukashenka’s merit comes from that, too.

But at the same time he has to demonstrate allied faith to Russia. Even though trade with Russia is falling down, but it is not only IMF that Belarus asks for loans. And while IMF doesn’t guarantee loans, Russia is most likely to support Lukashenka during the hard times. That is why Lukashenka demonstrates that he is a faithful ally. Here where the statements about rattling the sabre near the Belarusan border proceed from. These statements are not for the enemies, they are for the internal consumer that Lukashenka has nothing to give in terms of economy: if we have nothing to feed you, at least we can protect you.

- Lukashenka didn’t shock anyone when he said about the renovation of the cold war. What level might the cold war reach, and what is Belarus’ role in East-West confrontation?

-  Cold War is a part of the information war now. But there is nothing like military activities now that we had during the previous cold war. Even transfer of 5 tanks to Estonia, transfer of 250 American tanks to eight countries of Central and Eastern Europe only indicates military activity, but not the military activity itself.

However, if the situation in Ukraine aggravates (since whatever Russia says about it, it is growing both in terms of number and equipment) in case of restoration of military actions Ukrainian army might advance to the DPR’s and LPR’s territory quite far. If Russia sends divisions of “volunteers” in response, then situation will, of course, get worse, and West will use real military force against Russia apart from war of words and economic sanctions.

And here is where Belarus won’t get a chance for maneuvering. As Lukashenka explicitly said: we will do as the allies of America did. Americans got involved into Iraq even though they were wrong; allies supported them because they are allies. We will act just like them. Filed for maneuvering will sharply decrease, and Belarus will find itself involved in some preparatory measures: either additional Russian contingents will be disposed in Belarus, Russian airbase will appear or missile troops will be relocated to Belarus. The degree of a cold war will get higher and we will find ourselves in the 70s. Such developments are certainly bad for Belarus, since in this situation Belarus will have to fulfill its allied obligations to Russia.

- What does direct participation in hostilities mean?

- There is an allied agreement between Russia and Belarus: if one country is involved in hostilities, second party is obliged to support it.