Pavel Usau: Opposition is half-decayed; Statkevich won’t be able to stop it in this environment

The opposition’s consolidation resources have become even smaller, taking into account that some part of it goes for direct deal with the authorities, the political scientist assumes.

Pavel Usau, the head of the Center for political analysis and prognosis in Warsaw, considers the release of the Belarusan political prisoners to be a catalyzer of regime’s escape from the economic isolation.

Let us recall that the released Mikalai Statkevich himself says that the reason for the preliminary release of six political prisoners is the fact that “the regime has run out of money”, so the authorities started to imitate democracy.

And it looks like the game of the authorities is going to bring some dividends, at least, assumes Pavel Usau, the minimum program can be fulfilled: “if not the legitimation of elections, then at least the change of their status to “not condemned” by the international democracy, as well as the maximally possible way-out from economic isolation”. Belarusan goods will hardly see new European markets – but the reason will be their non-competitiveness; however, loans are very likely. The chances of loyalty in West’s assessment of elections increase also because Belarus doesn’t look as monstrous as the conflicting with the whole world Russia does.

As to the danger for the authorities that the release of such leader as Mikalai Statkevich poses, the current state of the Belarusan opposition decreases its level.

“The fact that Mikalai Statkevich didn’t sign the petition for pardon and is a moral winner in this confrontation with Lukashenka is a big plus for the democratic community and the politician himself; however, the main problem is that now opposition is in such a state of decay and demoralization, under such influence of the authorities that it would take a dozen of Statkevichs to overcome the situation in the opposition, not to mention the situation in the country in general, - notes Pavel Usau in the interview with the “EuroBelarus” Information Service.  – We need to understand that for the majority of the society the personality of Statkevich is absolutely unknown; he is a hero in the democratic community – the hero, who upheld his stance till the end. However, this democratic community is so limited and paralyzed that it cannot be a resource for changes now. We also need to remember that there used to be and still are serious conflicts within the opposition. Now, for example, the conflict that we observe is the literal deal with the authorities that the opposition goes for – by this I mean Tatsiana Karatkevich and the company, which means that this consolidation resource has become even smaller. Taking into account that during all these years no consolidated opposition front was created Statkevich will also hardly be able to do it, first of all because there are some people in the opposition, who don’t want to agree and consolidate”.

A second important factor that is playing against the opposition is the Ukraine that is at war: “If we are talking about fight, fight not for life but for death, i.e. by mean of some protests, revolutions and so on, there are no conditions for that in Belarus. First of all, there is no psychological mood, considering the Ukraine example. The society is much more scared with the bloodshed that is now going on in the neighboring country than with the prospect of the economy’s deterioration. Even with all the impoverishment of Belarusans it is the war in Ukraine that serves as the restraint of dissatisfaction. Basically, that is the reason why the opposition, with or without Statkevich, was and is in the ideological and strategic vacuum; i.e. all that is left for it is to work not for the future but to reanimate the opposition, renovate its popularity in the society and strengthen the structures”.

However, the expert believes that Mikalai Statkevich will hardly be able to do this work “due to the above-mentioned reasons – throughout all thee years the opposition has become so decayed through its inner conflicts, some financial issues, as well as authorities’ infiltration, that if Statkevich decides to fight, he will have to establish his own new structure that will dismiss all other opposition structures from the political field”. “But I don’t think that it’s possible in the near future”, - assumes Pavel Usau, emphasizing one more time that now Belarusans fear Maidan in Minsk more than an empty pocket.