Point of view: Statkevich strengthens coalition for non-recognition and makes it more radical

He attempts to push for consolidation of political parties and movements that stand for strong pressure on President Lukashenka and non-recognition of president elections by Western observers.

Participants in this coalition alliance are planning to boycott the ongoing election campaign and demand holding another presidential election. Most likely, they are counting on the ‘Maidan’ scenario to occur spontaneously i.e. without appeals to voters to hold a protest demonstration on the election day. Mikola Statkevich is the main supporter of higher protest activity, while other coalition participants are very cautious in their statements and estimates with regard to protest potential in society. 

Mikola Statkevich, former political prisoner and ex-presidential candidate, is creating a new opposition coalition, which held its first press conference last week. 

The press conference was organised by Mikola Statkevich, Pavel Sieviarynec, Co-chairman of the Belarusian Christian Democracy organising committee, Anatoly Liabedzka, the United Civic Party Chairman, and Uladzimir Niakliaeu, former presidential candidate. During the press conference, Statkevich emphasised that the abovementioned opposition leaders had formed a new opposition coalition. 

Yet it would be premature to think about full-fledged cooperation between the organisations in the coalition. For instance, Uladzimir Niakliaeu, who leads the creation of the “Movement for Statehood and Independence of Belarus”, said he was unwilling to return to the opposition or participate in any coalition unions. In addition, Statkevich has strongly opposed to cooperation with former communists from the ‘Fair World’ leftist party and the Belarusian Popular Front Party. 

The main objective of the newly created coalition is to disrupt recognition of the elections by the international observers from the OSCE. According the opposition alliance leaders, if international community recognises the presidential elections results and legitimises Lukashenka, he might jeopardize Belarus’ sovereignty and independence. In 2010, prior to the election date, President Lukashenka made concessions to the Kremlin and signed several agreements on Belarus’ accession to the Common Economic Space with Russia and Kazakhstan. However, back then, the Russian media was extremely aggressive when reporting about President Lukashenka, which is not the case this year. 

Some opposition leaders are attempting to revise their previous demands vis-a-vis the authorities, for instance, their refusal to take part in the election campaign while there were political prisoners. The release of all political prisoners has removed this requirement from the opposition’s agenda. Now, they put forward initially unacceptable demands to the authorities. For example, former leader of the "Tell the Truth!" movement Uladzimir Niakliaeu demanded that former political prisoner Mikola Statkevich was granted the right to participate in the ongoing campaign as a candidate. In turn, Statkevich proposed to “stop the ongoing campaign and hold normal democratic elections”. 

In the past, Statkevich was always for participation in the election campaigns, yet this time he changed his position and appealed “to ignore the election show”, which de facto meant to boycott the elections. In addition, he said that people could come out to street protest actions on the election day or event before that, which in his opinion, should prompt the authorities to hold new elections, which would adhere to democratic principles. 

Meanwhile, other alliance leaders were more cautious in their statements about yet another attempt to implement the ‘Maidan’ scenario. Their low enthusiasm is probably based on the following factors: opinion polls demonstrate that the support for protests is very low; very modest number of coalition activists; radicalization requires very different leaders and activists, and only a small number of the coalition supporters are potentially ready for such a future. 

Statkevich and his new coalition alliance are unlikely to attract new supporters, in particular, if they encounter a tough response from the authorities. However, Statkevich might undertake drastic action with very few supporters in order to disrupt the recognition of the elections results by international observers. 

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