Uladzimir Matskevich: Now it’s the right time to weaken Belarus’ dependence on Russia

It will be a very hard thing to do; but it should be done. For that, we need political will.

Even if the regime in Belarus is changed in the near future, new authorities would inherit all secret agreement with Russia and would have to denounce, renegotiate, and dispute them.

Today Russia is leading hostilities in Ukraine; the newest information tells that Russian military units are spotted in Syria – the country is fighting on two fronts. Russian economy, which, according to experts, will fall into stagnation in 2016, won’t survive such pressure. Russia is weakened. Isn’t it about time for the official Minsk to seriously consider escaping Russia’s tight embrace?

Uladzimir Matskevich, the head of the Board of the International Consortium “EuroBelarus”, answered the questions of the “EuroBelarus” Information Service.

- According to Moody’s by 2016 Russia’s economy will be stagnating since its dependence on raw materials is too high. What should Belarus be prepared to?

- Within the frames of extremely tight integration of Belarus’ and Russia’s economies we should get ready to big troubles. Any negative changes in Russia’s economy automatically affect Belarus; Russian market limitations narrow possibilities for Belarusan exporters, too.

For Belarusan enterprises to export their produce to Russia, we should constantly follow the course of the Russian ruble. If Belarus doesn’t devaluate Belarusan ruble simultaneously with the fall of the Russian ruble, then even with the same volume of export we might seriously lose on the differences in rates.

Belarusan economy will face hard times due to stagnation of the Russian market.

- According to UN’s assessments, the war in Donbas will weaken Russian and Ukrainian markets, which will result in natural recession of Belarus’ development. Quite simply, Russia will draw its closest ally to the abyss. What can Belarus oppose to the forthcoming crisis?

- We should try not to lose the Russian market even if it becomes narrower. Be that as it may, but shortsighted policy of the Belarusan regime towards Russia led to huge dependency that our economy is experiencing at the Russian market. Whereas in the long-term perspective we should reorient Belarusan economy to the European market and markets of dynamically developing countries – Russian partners in BRICS (which is now undergoing tough times): Brazil, India, and China. But it is these countries as well as other countries of Latin America together with the developed countries of the “twenty” that can be the guiding lines for reorientation of the Belarusan expert. At least, we should try to achieve that.

- Participation in hostilities in Ukraine and now in Syria will only worsen Russia’s situation. If Belarus preserves its one-sided orientation at Russia in such situation it will equal to committing suicide – both economically and politically. Is there a way-out in this situation?

- In comparison to the CIS countries, Belarus has a number of advantages of working with Russia. Perhaps, no one knows this market better then Belarusan entrepreneurs, officials, and marketers. That is why we could become good partners for other companies and countries that are working on these markets. We just haven’t learned how to use our benefits yet.

On the other hand, it’s not only war and sanctions that led Russian economy to stagnation; scientific and technical advance also played important role in it. Now the hopes of the technological progress are related with powerful storage batteries and development of alternative sources of energy that will lead to reduction of dependence of developed countries from hydrocarbons. Current tendencies put not only Russia, but also OPEC and all oil-refining countries, into a difficult situation. Judging by all, future is with the development of the alternative energy. So we shouldn’t think that with cessation of war or with the change of Putin’s regime to more sensible and rational the situation in Russia will come back to where it used to be; it won’t. Today we should resolve both short-term problems, such as dependency of Belarusan economy on Russia, as well as long-term ones, such as reorientation of our energy dependence to alternative energy resources and change of our technological infrastructure in accordance with that.

- Russia is not going to let Belarus go. It’s time to pay the bills, the first of which Russia has already announced: on September 3 Russian government put forward an offer to deploy a Russian airbase in Belarus. What threat does the appearance of the Russian military base in our country pose?

- None of the serious politicians, economists, and analysts assumes that Belarus can easily get out of Russia’s influence. To resolve this task, political will and creativity are needed; this is a long-term process. First of all, we need political will for that, so that we could gradually lower our dependency and achieve economic sovereignty and economic safety.

We shouldn’t think that the problem comes to trade wars, tariffs, and tax rates. The thing is that Belarus is also dependent on Russia in the military sphere, where civil society and political opposition are the least competent since all bilateral agreements with Russia are hidden from the broader public. And I’m afraid that even if the regime in Belarus is changed in the near future, new authorities would inherit all secret agreement with Russia and would have to denounce, renegotiate, and dispute them. There is no end to work.

- Isn’t it about time for the official Minsk to think of escaping Russia’s tight embrace now, when it is fighting on two fronts, is in the world isolation, and in the state of economic crisis? Or at least loosen the grip?

- The time has come long time ago. However, the myopic foolish policy of the Belarusan regime now results in our being in the track of the Russian crisis. We are losing our chance now; it is a convenient situation to weaken our dependency on Russia. But to do that we need political will.