Belarusans are growing less interested in Eurasian integration

Over the last year Belarusan population has noticeably lost interest towards European integration.

According to the 2015 survey, public support for participation in the EAEU in Russia and Kazakhstan stands at 78% and 80%, respectively. At the same time citizens of Armenia and Belarus place the least value on participation in the EAEU (56% and 60%, respectively; positive responses fell by 8 percentage points in both countries), show the results of the Eurasian Development Bank Centre for Integration Studies “EDB Integration Barometer”.

Kyrgyzstan registered the highest level of public support for Eurasian economic integration, setting a four-year high after increasing from 50% of the population in 2014 to 86% in 2015.

Among countries that do not yet belong to the EAEU, the greatest indicators of public support for the prospect of joining the union were exhibited by Tajikistan (72%).

In 2015, Moldova experienced some growth in the percentage of its citizens who would like to see their country in the EAEU—from 49% in 2014 to 53% in 2015—as well as a slight reduction in the share of those who oppose or are indifferent to that possibility.

In Ukraine, support for the prospect of joining the EAEU fell by one-third last year and stood at just 19% in 2015 (with 60% negative responses). A statistically significant drop was recorded in Georgia: the share in favour of a hypothetical accession into the EAEU declined from 53% in 2014 to 41% in 2015, while the percentage of those opposed climbed from 23% in 2014 to 34% in 2015.

As part of the 2015 survey, the populations of four EAEU member states were asked about their attitudes toward the creation of several common institutions under the EAEU: a common currency, common laws, a common army, and a common regulatory body. An analysis shows that citizens in all four EAEU member states lack a unified position regarding the need for the indicated common institutions: opposing opinions were split nearly evenly. The sole exception was the attitude toward a common army in Belarus and Russia: the majority of the population responded negatively (57% in Belarus and 53% in the Russian Federation). Armenia also stands out, where most citizens favored a single currency, but here, too, the majority, comprising 55%, was not dominant.

The results of the fourth wave have confirmed the long-recognized age differentiation of the populations’ integration orientations. The young people of nearly every CIS country are noticeably less likely than the adult population to choose the Eurasian vector in their economic and cultural preferences. The cross-generational gap is especially large in the European CIS countries (Belarus, Moldova, and Ukraine). Also an analysis of the data reveals that in large countries (such as Russia, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine) there is a domestic territorial differentiation of the population’s integration sentiments.

As in the surveys of 2012–2014,among countries of the CIS region the leading position as a source of foreign capital are held by Russia, which is preferred by the residents of all countries in the post-Soviet space (mentioned by an average of 37% of respondents), except Georgia, Ukraine, and Moldova.