Experts: Thaw will soon end; pre-election regime of repressions and economic stagnation will return

In contrast to the large-scale protests following the 2010 elections, the results of elections 2015 were met with an apprehensive trickle of discontent consisting of a few hundred people.

The victory at the elections has never been easier and calmer for Aliaksandr Lukashenka, said Valery Karbalevich, expert with the analytical center "Strategy" and one of the leading Belarusian political analysts. 

 “There wasn’t much struggle in the elections. Under the influence of the Ukrainian crisis Belarusian society was scared, the demand for “a tough hand” increased. At the same time the opposition was split, the leaders of parties and movements failed to agree. As a result, the opposition wasn’t able to carry out an active election campaign. In addition, this time the West counted on cooperation with Lukashenka, as a consequence the opposition virtually remained without support. The opposition didn’t call people to the streets once again against the background of the events that took place in Ukraine. They feared a repetition of the tragic events on the Maidan”.

After the closing of polling stations on polling day some people began to gather on Kastrychnitskaya Square. In the wake of the events in Ukraine however, the action was small; moreover, the opposition leaders were not among the protesters. The protest action was attended by about 500 people. Demonstrators at national and European flags went to Independence Square, chanting slogans “Long live Belarus!”, “Lukashenka, get out!”, “Boycott”. Then they prayed at the Red Church next to the Square and left. The protesters were closely followed by plain-clothed officers, but were not detained.

The ex-presidential candidate Tatsiana Karatkevich tried to challenge the results of the elections. She filed a complaint for the non-recognition of the validity of the presidential election with the Central Election Commission. In the complaint the data of observation campaigns “Right to choose” and “Human Rights Defenders for Free Elections”, as well as a list of violations recorded by activists of Tatsiana Karatkevich’s staff, consisting of 139 pages, was used. At the same time, according to the ex-candidate, the complaint contained proposals to the CEC regarding future election campaigns. In particular, the proposals included the following; to promote the registration of civil society organizations, to limit early voting in the elections, to ensure inclusion of representatives of all candidates in the electoral commissions and provide an open vote count.

The Central Election Commission of Belarus dismissed the complaint of Tatsiana Karatkevich. In discussing the complaint the Central Electoral Commission heard the heads of regional election commissions, who were unanimous: “there are no justified complaints that could cast doubt on the elections results as a whole”. Officials added that “Most of the examples set out in the complaint of Mrs. Karatkevich are not the examples of law violation, but the opinions of observers and their assumptions. From 1400 examples about 700 ones are just assumptions”. The head of the Election Commission Lidzia Jarmoshyna noted that the statements by the ex-presidential candidate suggesting that the students of universities and other educational institutions were forced to vote early were not confirmed – “Arguments about forcing students to vote early were untenable – there were no complaints from students as well as from teachers and professors to the CEC. Accordingly, they were not considered”.

The violations mentioned in the complaint did not go unnoticed by the OSCE and ODIHR observers. In their report they drew the attention to the lack of transparency of the elections in Belarus, especially during the vote count. However, the absence of unrest after the election and pre-election release of political prisoners helped Aliaksandr Lukashenka to save face in front of the western countries. Consequently, the EU sanctions against Lukashenka and a number of citizens of Belarus will be suspended. The freeze of the sanctions is temporary and will last only from the end of October until the end of February. The sanctions can be resumed in the event the EU finds new violations of human rights in Belarus.

According to Valery Karbalevich, at this stage of relations between the West and Belarus the human rights issue is not essential. Therefore, the normalization of international relations would not contribute to the normalization of the internal situation in the country — it was confirmed by Aliaksandr Lukashenka during his speech at the polling station, when he called on the opposition to “respect the law” after 20:00 on October 11. So, exactly at 20:00, the liberalization, which the authorities have admitted in the pre-election period, was over. Now Karbalevich believes that any protest the opposition in the street will be “strictly prosecuted. Experts predict that Lukashenka is not going to leave his position, “he plans to rule in Belarus to the end of his days”. Valery Karbalevich also stressed the need to prepare for the situation that took place before the start of the election campaign — that is, to the harsh repression of those who express in public their dissatisfaction with the current situation. This applies both to the politicians and activists, human rights defenders and independent journalists.

With regard to the reform of the political system, — it’s not going to happen, considers the analyst. The Belarusian social model has exhausted all its resources. In order for the country to be able to develop, this model should be changed. The authorities, however, are not ready for such changes. It means that Belarus will deteriorate: there will be no economic growth, and no growth in the standard of living. Probably only some cosmetic changes in the economy will take place. And this can happen only because the International Monetary Fund and the Eurasian Bank of stability and development require these reforms for providing loans.

Economist and expert Anton Baltochka share a similar opinion. It is alarming that among the officials there is no clear consensus on the way to lead the country. “The head of the state hasn’t expressed his vision of the development strategy as well. Most likely there will be no far-reaching reforms in the economy because of the lack of a unified system of decision-making. Everything will stop on local actions like improving the efficiency of public administration, improving the efficiency of state-owned enterprises through the motivation of managers. But structural reforms are not planned. The authorities count on the preservation of state property, “tough hand” of the state and its role in the management of the economic system”.

From global economic issues, to the prospects of ordinary Belarusians the expert also isn’t too optimistic: “Without taking reforms into consideration, in any case we are waiting for stagnation – i.e. falling or freezing of current incomes. At the same time, the prices will rise. If you start the reform now, the Belarusians can hope to improve the welfare in the future. But most likely it will not happen, which will lead to long-term stagnation. Belarusians, having not satisfied their expectations from the authorities, and having no possibility to influence it, will either leave the country or start out-of-law activities. In this case, I predict great growth of the informal sector, which will reflect the protests of the population”.

The article was originally published at humanrightshouse.org