Why did the EU decide to change its policy towards Lukashenka and what ability does it have to change Belarus’ political system?
Let us recall that Brussels temporarily suspended package of sanctions on Belarus in late October 2015 after the Lukashenka regime released a group of political prisoners and the presidential elections were carried out without mass ‘repression'. But opposition activists argued these signs of goodwill were merely window dressing, in a country where the Belarus strongman's 21-year rule has been marred by accusations of human rights abuses.
"Nothing has changed in terms of the human rights situation. Violation of freedom of speech, assemblies and all the political rights in our country; fraud during the election process and so on…I think that the European Union knows this but now we have quite a different geopolitical situation in the context of the war, of military aggression of Russia against Ukraine, - commented on this situation Andrei Yahorau, the director of the Belarus-based think-tank ‘Centre for European Transformation' in an interview with Ukraine Today at the recent Eastern Partnership Civil Society Forum in Kyiv, Ukraine. – [President Lukashenka's involvement in the Minsk peace process] was just a show. In reality, there is no independent position of Belarus from the position of Russia but it has performed a more-or-less neutral (position) without this idiotic propaganda in Belarusian media about this situation [in Ukraine] and this is appreciated by the European Union. The European Union wants to preserve Belarus (in) the sphere of its influence".
"I don't believe in very fast changes [in Belarus], - he added. – I don't believe in our political opposition and political parties because [there is] a huge problem [with] unity among political forces, unity between the political forces and the civil society in Belarus so people do not really have a political alternative to [President] Lukashenka".
He said Belarus would likely face economic tightening not only as a result of the coronavirus pandemic but also a Russian trade oil crisis that worsened this past winter.
The Belarusan National Platform of the EaP CSF issued a statement in connection with the wave of searches in the editorial offices of the Belarusan media and the detention of journalists.
On September 11, the inaugural „Vilnius Consultations“ conference was organized by Vilnius Institute for Policy Analysis and Lithuanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Not only does the "Union State" undermine the establishment of civilized relations with Europe, but it hinders the possibility of normal relations between Belarus and Russia.
Belarusan National Platform of the EaP CSF welcomes the dialogue process in the format of the EU-Belarus Coordination Group, the third round of which was held in Minsk on 3-4 April 2017.
The EaP CSF Steering Committee issued a statement on repressions against civil society activists and journalists in Belarus, in view of the demonstrations planned on 25 March 2017.
Belarusan President Lukashenko said on Tuesday a “fifth column” was plotting to overthrow him with the help of foreign-backed fighters, days before a planned street protest in Minsk against a new tax.
The Belarusian regime is not able to pursue a truly multi-vector policy, and the EU cannot decide what it needs in the region on the whole and from Belarus in particular.
He said Belarus would likely face economic tightening not only as a result of the coronavirus pandemic but also a Russian trade oil crisis that worsened this past winter.
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