Olexander Paliy: The most likely variant is the exchange of Savchenko for captured Russians

By kidnapping and putting Nadiya Savchenko on trial the Kremlin hoped to demonstrate the vulnerability of Ukrainian soldiers; however, it only demonstrated their power and moral superiority.

Donetsk Court of Rostov region (Russia) will bring in a verdict on Nadiya Savchenko on March 21 or 22.

On the eve of it, on March 9, Nadiya Savchenko had her last word in court:

"Russia is a third world country with a totalitarian regime that doesn’t observe human rights and international law... I find it unnecessary to spend my time on participation in the trial. Within 10 days after the verdict I will continue the hunger strike until I am released. I call on Poroshenko, who has promised my mother to get me back home as long ago as last spring, to hold talks with the Russian authorities on my return."

Mass demonstrations for the liberation of Nadiya Savchenko are staged throughout Ukraine.

Due to the publicity of the "Savchenko case" Ukraine might even agree on exchanging war prisoners, thus exchanging the pilot for one or even several Russians. The Ukraine President Petro Poroshenko has very limited possibilities; he is doing everything or almost everything possible for the liberation of Nadiya Savchenko. This is the viewpoint of the Ukrainian political commentator Olexander Paliy, who shared his vision and forecasts of the development of the situation with the case of Nadiya Savchenko with the "EuroBelarus" Information Service.

- The EU and the US demand the immediate release of a Ukrainian pilot Nadiya Savchenko, who is held in a Russian prison. Should we consider the variant with Nadiya Savchenko’s release seriously?

- The most likely variant is the exchange of Savchenko for captured Russians – one or even several. This is not entirely right, since the Russians have been killing Ukrainians at the Ukrainian territory, whereas Savchenko has been protecting her own country. But due to the publicity of the "Savchenko case" Ukraine might agree on the exchange.

- MEPs have prepared a "Savchenko list" - a list of sanctions against Russia and against Putin personally. Is the EU really ready to introduce personal sanctions against Putin?

- I think that the EU sanctions against the top Russian leadership are possible, but the “Savchenko case” will hardly be the reason for them. With its statements the European Union rather demonstrates the importance and integrity of this case for the EU. The "Savchenko case" might become one of the arguments for the imposition of sanctions, but only in the future.

- Why can’t the Kremlin simply return Nadiya Savchenko to Ukraine - this variant is cheaper and more profitable geopolitically?

- The Kremlin came to be the hostage of its own mistakes. Moscow hoped to demonstrate the vulnerability of Ukrainian soldiers; however, it only demonstrated their power and moral superiority. Russian special forces, who were captured, started crying immediately, got "cracked", admitted that they were Russian special forces and "brothers." Compared with them, Savchenko, Sentsov, and other Ukrainian war prisoners are much more like the special forces.

- Obviously, Nadiya Savchenko has become an object of trade between the West and Russia. What do the parties put at stake?

- This situation rather has moral and propaganda value. Even the Soviet Union authorities found it painful and unpleasant to look like cannibals in the eyes of the world, so they exchanged some of the most prominent dissidents.

- Some experts say that the death of Savchenko will lead to the beginning of a full-scale war. Is such a scenario real?

- I hope not.

- With each new day more and more Ukrainian regions are actively demanding the release of Nadiya Savchenko. Savchenko herself has blamed the President Poroshenko in being passive. How justified are these accusations?

- Poroshenko has limited possibilities. He cannot exchange Savchenko for too many prisoners as they were caught at a high price. He is doing everything or almost everything possible for the liberation of Nadiya Savchenko.

I think that if Savchenko returns, she can become an influential politician. Throughout the year and a half that she has spent in prison she behaved like a hero in the eyes of the people.

- In your opinion, what is the most likely scenario of "Savchenko case" resolution?

- I think that the exchange is the most likely variant. But the problem is that the Ukrainian authorities have real saboteurs, who invaded Ukraine, in their hands, and they would have to exchange them for a person, who was kidnapped in Ukraine and taken to Russia. Ukrainian special services have detained hundreds of saboteurs, many of whom are Russians. But the thing is that Russia doesn’t need them. And Russia demonstrates that in every way. Russia charges off any influential saboteur or field commander.