Ukraine-Belarus: imagining strategic partnership

Ukrainian and Belarusan experts discussed prospects of cooperation between the two countries in the new geopolitical situation.

On October 28 the Centre for European Transformation and the Polesski Fund of International and Regional Studies held a round table “Ukraine-Belarus: prospects of relations in the new geopolitical and economic realities”.

Basically all experts agree that during all previous years economy dominated in Belarus-Ukraine relations, whereas in unstable political relations, as Andrei Kazakevich, the director of the Institute for Policy Studies Palіtychnaya Sphera (Political Sphere) noted, domination was given to conjuncture. However, over the last year situation both inside the country and in the whole region was changed. “I can’t say that Belarus has no serious political interests in its relations with Ukraine. But for Russia, the EU, and to a certain degree the US, Ukraine is the only serious political actor in Belarus’ field of interest. If we look into a number of political crises in Belarus-Russia relations, we cannot but note Belarus’ constant attempts to take advantage of Ukraine, - marked Andrei Kazakevich. – So it would be too categorical to say that Belarus has no serious political interest towards Ukraine. As to the economic interests, I wouldn’t reduce them to selling refined petroleum products to Ukraine; there are certain Belarusan branches (suppliers of raw products and of certain types of production), for which Ukraine is really important. All the more that until recently Ukrainian market was understandable and stable unlike Venezuelan market”.

Gennady Maksak, the head of the Polesski Fund of International and Regional Studies, believes that today it is hard to forecast how the situation in Ukraine will be developing, and, accordingly, a lot in Ukraine-Belarus relations depends on the unpredictable development of the situation in the region. “Unfortunately, both in the short- and long-term perspectives, it is hardly possible that bilateral relations will be developing normally”, assumes the expert. According to Maksak, we need to create a group, a certain body that would be “defining policy coordination at the state level, so that we are able to talk about at least neighborhood policy if not strategic partnership”.

“Minsk might become quite profitable place for holding negotiations on cooperation between Customs Union and Ukraine. This format of talks can be advantageous both for Ukraine and for Belarus. Lukashenka can play the role of an unofficial mediator in relations with the Customs Union, - Gennady Maksak believes, - It is economic agenda that should prevail in Minsk, as for the moment the possibility of near-term prospects for settling the conflict by means of negotiations with Russia is low, and serving as a place for negotiations, Belarus might lose its attractiveness for other formats of negotiations, including economic ones”.

Ukrainian expert believes that Kiev “has to turn back to the active intermediary role in Minsk-Brussels relations”, and Lukashenka’s old personal acquaintance with Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko might help here.

Dzianis Jurchak, senior lecturer in Vitebsk P.M. Masherov State University, agrees with that: “Belarus and Ukraine are to retain close interaction in political sphere at different levels, as Belarus might become one of the interested mediators in issues concerning settling Ukraine’s relations with Russia. In its turn, Ukraine can also facilitate the dialog between Belarus and the EU. TO implement this, meetings between the heads of states are to become regular”.

As Gennady Maksak noted in the commentary to EuroBelarus Information Service, “we need to give the Belarusan authorities their due, as their policy of balancing bears fruit”. “Let’s say that Lukashenka is well accepted in Ukraine with due media support. But in reality, Ukraine has never looked unfriendly upon Belarus, as social base in Belarus is attractive to Ukrainian residents. Information exchange is taking place at everyday level, too. If we consider Russian aggression, Belarus’ actions in Ukraine are also perceived positively, although we know about uncertainty of the Belarusan authorities in the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. However, the position official Minsk is taking now is more or less acceptable for Ukraine. And everything behind that is very complicated because of a large number of variables we have no influence upon”, - said Maksak.

Summing the results of the discussion, Andrei Yahorau, the head of the Centre for European Transformation said: “The question about the strategic nature of Belarus-Ukraine relations remains undecided; looking at the objective structure of interests in actual relations, they might be imagined as a possibility of relations”. “Of course, today with Belarus and Ukraine being involved in diametrically opposite geopolitical and economic projects, we inevitably remain significant partners for each other, which presupposes establishment of long-term relations even in these complicated orientations”, - noted Andrei Yahorau.