Vladimir Fesenko: Ukraine is not Belarus. Euromaidan's dispersal won’t end confrontation

The worst way to end political conflict in Ukraine is to use force as it was done in Belarus in December 2010. However, the consequences may be disastrous.

On December 9 police broke up protest barricades near Ukraine’s parliament and presidential administration building; however, things didn't go as far as the new confrontation with the protesters. Can it happen so?

 Vladimir Fesenko, the Head of the Center for Political Analysis "Penta" is expecting the compromise between the authorities and the opposition, though it will be hard to achieve. In the interview with the EuroBelarus Information Service he shared his opinion on how the situation in Kiev will be developing:

- How can you describe the current stage of confrontation between Euromaidan and the authorities?

- The scenario that is unfolding in Ukraine now is a deep political crisis. Confrontation is becoming violent, with tens of thousands Maidan supporters on the one part and interior troops, riot police on the other.

Confrontation with the use of force is the worst possible scenario, which will cause a chain reaction of violence and uncontrollable political processes.

- On December 9 a five-day ultimatum of the authorities has finished; yesterday a 49-hour ultimatum of opposition has expired as well. Does it mean that the escalation of confrontation is inevitable?

- Ultimatums brought up by the two parties mean that these parties are not ready to compromise. Use of force in attempt to implement ultimatums will cause disastrous consequences.

It is announced that Viktor Yanukovich will meet with three of his previous counterparts (Leonid Kravchuk, Leonid Kuchma and Viktor Yushchenko), which can be the first step on a way to compromise.

On December 10-11 Catherine Ashton, the EU's high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, is on a visit in Kiev. Victoria Nuland, Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs at the US Department of State is in Kiev, too. EU and US representatives can also mediate a political dispute; still, it will be hard to find a compromise.

- On the one hand, Yanukovich has agreed to hold a roundtable with the opposition. On the other hand, Ukrainian President and the military discussed the plan to turn situation back in the frames of Constitution. What do you think, will Yanukovich dare to suppress the protest by using force?

- The scale is trembling between the two parties. The attempt to disperse Maidan by using force will cause a catastrophe for the whole country. Tens of thousands of people are in Kiev now; and they cannot be dispersed without political consequences; otherwise Yanukovich risks repeating Lukashenka’s mistakes. However, Ukraine is not Belarus. Dispersal of Euromaidan won’t end the confrontation; it might only prolong in time and develop into something different.

The consequences of forceful dispersion are hard to predict; however, it might even split the country.