Andrei Yahorau: Revolutionary chaos is reigning in Ukraine now

Subversive activity of Ukraine’s “eastern neighbor” adds to the traditional weakness and corrupted nature of Ukraine’s government and awkward Kiev’s inactivity.

Over the last few days Donetsk, Lugansk and Kharkov got involved in a wave of separatist actions. Government buildings and other guarded objects were given to bandits, who managed to get lot of weaponry out of these buildings. Separatists themselves didn’t fail to mention the creation of small republics within the regions, and Russian TV channels immediately called it “a historical event”. But why did another mass fit of love to Russia happen?

Andrei Yahorau, the head of the Centre for European Transformation, in the interview with the “EuroBelarus” Information Service shared his vision of the reasons that caused an outbreak of separatism at the east of Ukraine, spoke about the indecision of the authorities, as well as indicated possible scenarios for the future.

- Literally three days after the registration of the presidential candidates was finished, on April 6, separatists in Donetsk, Lugansk and Kharkov started seizing government buildings. Who stands behind destabilization in Ukraine?

- Coincidence and similar character of separatists’ actions in the east of Ukraine didn’t leave any doubts that it was planned earlier by Russia and Putin’s regime. Arrests of agents from the Russian intelligence services, who coordinated and organized the extremists, also prove that.

- In Donetsk strong-arm men in masks announced about the creation of “Independent Donetsk Republic”. In Lugansk separatists got 300 submachine guns, rifles, 20 kilograms of explosives from the seized building of Ukraine’s Security Service. The building of Kharkov regional administration was seized in 10 minutes with the connivance of militia. Why do law enforcement agencies agree to Ukraine’s explosion by separatists again?

 - It is revolutionary chaos that is reigning in Ukraine now. Subversive activity of Ukraine’s “eastern neighbor” adds to the traditional weakness and corrupted nature of Ukraine’s government and awkward Kiev’s inactivity. Although the state of war with Russia is obvious, the borders aren’t closed yet, the state of emergency is not introduced, Ukraine’s army and militia are not embattled, they are not given clear instructions of how to act, etc. Only connivance and weak reaction of the law enforcement agencies led to the seizure of weaponry. But if the militia doesn’t follow the commands, its local management and ranks should be immediately changed, and loyal pro-Ukrainian militia units and army should be introduced instead.

- What is the goal of those who stand behind “separatist actions”? Are Ukraine’s eastern parts facing the threat of the Crimean scenario or is there some other fate for them?

 - Obviously, there are several scenarios, and Crimean variant is one of them. Today Russia wants to negotiate with Ukrainian authorities on its terms, i.e. make them discuss federalization and reshuffle in Ukraine’s government. Russia wants to see pro-Russian politicians in Ukraine’s government and guarantees that Ukraine’s policy is under their control. Russian Foreign Ministry has already voiced a suggestion about the “international assistance to the start of actual national dialog of all Ukraine’s political and regional forces”.

But we can’t exclude intervention if Ukraine isn’t easy to manage. Everything is ready for that; the army is at the borders…

- Is Ukraine capable of withstanding the military invasion of Russian army to the east of the country?

- No, Ukraine is unable to oppose Russian aggression alone. But Ukraine can address UNO and NATO and ask for the assistance and introduction of peacemaking forces. Although Ukraine shouldn’t count on UNO’s help, as the decision is made in the Security Council, where Russia has a right of veto. But symbolically, it can be a good move.

- EU is closely watching the developments in the eastern Ukraine, so that to be ready to introduce economic sanctions of third level if the situation got escalated. Such statement made Catherine Ashton on April 7. But for now the EU is only calling for “non-violent” way of voicing political demands and de-escalation of conflict. It seems that the EU stamped itself as being absolutely helpless: EU fought against Kremlin with the help of bare statements during the Crimean occupation, too. The situation is repeated.

- Sanctions should have been introduced long time ago, and it is about time to think about direct help to Ukraine. Calling for peace won’t help there. Situation with Crimea is extremely significant.