Andrei Yahorau: The use of force is the only way to resolve the problems of separatism in Ukraine

False illusions that the international community can possibly influence Russia are only causing false decisions in Kiev.

Each day the situation in south-eastern Ukrainian regions becomes increasingly tense. Starting from April in Donetsk region gunmen seized police stations (in Kramatorsk, Slovyansk and Horlivka), the buildings of city executive committees and councils (in Kramatorsk, Yenakiieve, Makiivka, Mariupol, Khartsyzk), public prosecutor's office and administration of Ukraine’s security services in Yenakiieve and Slovyansk, as well as the regional Ukraine’s security services in Luhansk. Each day the number of the seized buildings is growing. Ukrainian authorities are voicing their intentions to give adequate reaction to the mounting challenges, but problems still remain.

Latest events in Ukraine with the EuroBelarus Information Service discussed Andrei Yahorau, the head of the Centre for European Transformation.

- Oleksandr Turchinov suggested holding an anti-terror operation together with the UNO. In your comments you have been considering the possibility to include UNO in the Russia-Ukraine conflict resolution and to use NATO peacekeeping forces for a long time; however, new Ukrainian government is repeatedly makes decisions too late. Why is it happening?

- Ukraine’s government is in a hard situation, as it needs to deal with numerous problems and challenges at the same time, and all the attempts to improve the situation encounter the flaws of the previous system: corruption, organizational chaos and disloyalty of the law enforcement structures.

It might be that today Ukrainian authorities lack will and decisiveness for realization of necessary though rather difficult measures. And false illusions that the international community can possibly influence Russia are only causing false decisions in Kiev.

- Five days ago Ukrainian authorities have announced an ultimatum to separatists – to lay down arms. H-hour has long ago passed, but an ultimatum didn’t stop further advancement of separatists and Russian subversives. Vice versa, the aggressors are becoming insolent and tough, seizing new public institutions and causing death and destruction around them. Why are the authorities unable to suppress the separatist protests?

-  It is obviously not that simple in the current situation. In order to suppress separatist protests certain resources are required, i.e. preparation, discipline in the law enforcement agencies. Ukrainian authorities are not ready for decisive and tough actions, as it is not street protests they are suppressing, but rather armed and well prepared riots inspired by Russia.

It is not simple decisions that are at stake; however, in this situation decisive and brave actions are required. It would be fatal to hesitate; and Crimea is sad evidence to that.

- Turchinov has signed a decree “On urgent measures to address terrorist threats, preserve Ukraine's territorial integrity”, which marked the beginning of the anti-terror operation. Will the scenario where there is place for use of force untie Ukrainian knot or will it make it even worse?

- It seems that the use of force is the only way to resolve the problems of separatism in Ukraine in a situation of absolute neglect. The authorities didn’t prevent the formation of armed gangs inspired by Russian intelligence services at Ukraine’s territory. And if the state can’t cope with the armed gangs it has no right for existence.

But to suppress the separatist protests is not the only thing to do for Ukrainian authorities; they should also address the interests of the eastern regions and provide them using political methods.

After the peace in the eastern Ukraine is restored, the politics will come into action. Eastern regions should get a civilized place in the negotiations about the state system and their interests are to be taken into account. New Verkhovna Rada is to be elected, so that the parliament acts in accordance with the interests of the whole Ukraine.

- Kiev has announced that simultaneously with the president election on May 25 the referendum on state system of Ukraine can also be held. Ukrainian authorities have basically agreed to implement one of the Kremlin’s demands, which call for Ukraine’s federalization. Is it surrender?

- No, it is a tactical step of Ukrainian government. The authorities are ready for a referendum if it is open, honest and legitimate. The supporters of Ukraine’s federalization are going to win if their will is expressed freely, and no federalization would be necessary. The latest polls prove that.

The problem is that Russia doesn’t want an open and honest referendum: it wants Ukraine’s federalization de-facto, and that is why it is insisting on including separatist groups in a team of negotiators on Ukraine’s state system –with no legitimate mechanisms.  That is why Russia wants to stir up instability.

To hold a referendum at gun point is too risky for the Ukrainian state. They are to arrange order first, and hold referendum openly, under good safety conditions afterwards.

The inclusion of separatist gangs in the negotiations would mean surrender.

- What’s next? Ukrainian authorities don’t want to introduce the state of emergency in order not to disrupt elections. But without decisive actions they are not going to live through the president election… So what is more important: the election or the territorial integrity?

- It is impossible to organize election process in the situation of the ongoing war. Russia is aware of that and will do everything to disrupt the election. As after the president election Ukraine will have a legitimate president, and Russia won’t be able to pester with Yanukovich as Ukraine’s “legitimate” president.