Pavel Usau: Putin acts as Hitler and Stalin acted in their times

Tagesspiegel.de

There is no fundamental law for Russia anymore; Kremlin could lead peaceful negotiations and sign the agreements with one hand and destabilize situation in Ukraine with the other.

There can be a turning point in Russia-Ukraine war; but what switch will it take?

What is to become with Ukraine: de- or escalation of confrontation? A political scientist Pavel Usau told his vision to the “EuroBelarus” Information Service.

- European Parliament has allowed Ukraine and other countries-members of the Eastern Partnership program (EaP) to apply for a membership in the EU in case the democratic principles are observed. Will Ukraine take use of it?

- According to EU principles and the Maastricht treaty any European country can apply for a membership in the EU if it shares EU principles. So formally European Parliament can neither allow nor prohibit some country on the European continent submit an appeal for the entry in the EU.

The other thing is that the process of becoming a member of the EU is prolonged and complicated. The state has to observe a number of political, economic and social criteria, and only after that, after the approval of all acting EU members, it can enter the Union. In other words, though Ukraine has a possibility to submit an appeal, it will take years for it to become a member of the EU. Though inner situation in Ukraine isn’t favourable for such a decision, as it can only aggravate contradictions in the country and intensify separatist tendencies.

- Georgia and Moldova are getting this right together with Ukraine; however, all the other countries of the EaP, including Belarus, do not appear on the EaP list. Does it mean that Belarus is banned from entering the EU?

- A Belarus with a tough undemocratic regime is banned from entering the EU, likewise Armenia and Azerbaijan. It all depends on the choice of Belarus; and thanks to the efforts made by the authorities; our country has chosen an absolutely different direction. And our country is unlikely to change its geopolitical priorities while Lukashenka remains in power.

- European Parliament has called for the EU to help Ukraine in its gas conflict with Russia. Does it mean that the European Parliament starts imposing tough politics towards Russia to the EU? These questions are always for the government to decide, not the parliament.

- However tough the statements made by the European Parliament are, usually they are not put into practice. There is also European Council, as well as the governments of separate countries, which can bypass the made decisions. I believe that the EU won’t dare to introduce tough economic sanctions towards Russia, and Moscow is well aware of that.

 - After the four-day negotiations Geneva statement was signed on April 17. In it the parties “agreed on initial concrete steps to de-escalate tensions and restore security for all citizens of Ukraine”. Should we trust Russia’s foreign minister Lavrov, who claims that Russia is not going to bring its troops into Ukraine?

- After the impudent occupation of Crimea I don’t understand what agreements we can talk about. There is no fundamental law for Russia anymore, there is only a right of power, and Russia will use this right until an equal power stops it. There is no doubt that Kremlin could lead peaceful negotiations and sign the agreements with one hand and destabilize situation in Ukraine with the other. The goal is set, the mechanism of Ukraine’s deconstruction is launched, and only the mobilization of all resources of Ukrainian society can stop this process. Ukrainians should understand that no signed documents can save them.

- Some hours before the agreement was signed Putin’s words were absolutely different: “Kharkov, Lugansk, Donetsk, Kherson, Nikolayev, and Odessa were not part of Ukraine in the times of the imperia. All these territories were given to Ukraine in the 20s by the Soviet government, God knows why”. Does it mean that Kremlin is ready to win the above mentioned regions back from Ukraine?

- Certainly. Putin acts as Hitler and Stalin acted in their times: they signed pacts, agreements, divided territories and assured each other in friendship, but were preparing for a war. Russia got a perfect opportunity to get a huge part of territory without particular efforts and losses and it won’t reject these opportunities now. According to Russia’s plan, all the adopted statements should act only in relation to Ukraine and Kiev authorities in order for them to lower pressure on separatists and eliminate the use of forceful methods. Meanwhile, using the unwarranted trustfulness of the West and Kiev, Moscow will rock the boat in the regions.

Unfortunately, the time for negotiations has passed away.