Andrei Yahorau: Even if some districts don’t have election, Ukraine will get a legitimate president

However, Russia is most unlikely to recognize the president election in Ukraine, as it will mean that EuroMaidan is recognized and did happen.

Russia is trying to blunt Ukraine’s and EU’s vigilance by making statements about the withdrawal of the Russian army from the Ukrainian borders, which was announced on May 19 by Sergei Shoigu, Russian Defence Minister. The withdrawal of the Russian army could supposedly signal that Kremlin signs off and stops supporting pro-Russian extremists in Ukraine.

However, racketeering and anarchy are still reigning in Lugansk and Donetsk regions. Will Kiev manage to hold the president election, which is to take place in less than a week? Will Russia recognize this election? Will Kremlin back out of Ukraine after it?

Andrei Yahorau, the head of the Centre for European Transformation, answered the questions asked by the EuroBelarus Information Service.

- On May 19 Kremlin’s press-service informed about the instruction to return the army which had been holding exercise at the Ukrainian border to the place of its garrison. This instruction was given by the president of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin. However, NATO Secretary General Anders Fogn Rasmussen “didn’t see any evidence of the actual withdrawal of the Russian army”. As it turned out, the withdrawal never happened…

- No one actually was going to withdraw the army. Putin is just temporizing by giving empty promises in order to calm down the West. At the same time, the presence of Russian army at the Ukrainian border is an instrument to exert pressure on Kiev authorities, as well as it is a direct support of separatists. Any statement during the war should be considered not as a fact, but as a move in the information war. Only real actions matter.

- Will Kremlin withdraw Russian army from the Ukrainian border before May 25, the time of the president election? Or the army is a means to threaten Ukrainians during the president election?

- The army will be withdrawn only if Putin decides to compromise Lugansk and Donetsk separatists. For now it isn’t obvious and it is most likely to remain as it is.

- Ukrainian Prime-Minister Yatsenyuk stated that the election will take place throughout all Ukraine, including Lugansk and Donetsk regions, which were seized by the terrorists. If the official Kiev doesn’t control these regions, how will the election process be possibly organized?

- By no means. The election will take place only where the Ukrainian authorities are in control of the districts or where the Ukrainian army can provide security. It is obvious that in some quarter of districts in Lugansk and Donetsk regions the election won’t take place, which will serve as a reason for Russia and separatists, if they decide to escalate the conflict, not to recognize the results of the election.

- Will Russia recognize the results of the president election in Ukraine

- I doubt it. Recognition of the election by Russia will mean the recognition of the Ukrainian government which has allocated this election, i.e. the fact of EuroMaidan’s victory. Besides, blockage of polling stations and seizure of district electoral committees proves that the separatists are actively impeding the election. I doubt that it is being done without Russia's consent.

But if the Russian army is withdrawn from the Ukrainian border and separatists start disarming, it will be a real sign of Russia’s withdrawal from the conflict, and the recognition of elections will be more real in that case.

- Kremlin can continue its attempts to destabilize the situation in the south-eastern Ukraine, even if the EU and US recognize the election. How will Kremlin use Lugansk and Donetsk regions in future, especially taking into account that the majority of Ukrainians are against federalization?

- It will be used just as it is being used now: in order to create chaos, disorders and so on, so that to make Kiev be loyal to Russia.

- Which role in stabilization of the situation in Ukraine can play the “Memorandum of Peace and Consent” which was adopted by Verkhovna Rada on May 20?

- It is no more than a symbolic move during the information war. The fact that this document was adopted is good, as it removes certain speculations about the defence of the Russian-speaking population, but no more than that.

- Will Ukraine get legitimate authorities in result of the president election?

- Ukraine already has legitimate authorities represented by Verkhovna Rada and the government formed by it. If the election takes place, Ukraine will also get a legitimate president. Still, even if a number of districts don’t have election, on the whole, it will still be legitimate.