Aleksandr Paliy: Russia hopes that Ukraine’s economy will be destroyed earlier than its own

Intervention of Russia military forces into Ukraine started in the late August-September and haven’t stopped since then.

The official Kiev suggested the EU its own terms for abolition of sanctions against Russia. Moscow is to compensate Ukraine for the infringed damage; it will give Crimea back, and will stop destabilization at the east of the country. Basically, it means Russia’s capitulation in the Russia-Ukraine war. For now this scenario is hardly possible; however, post-Putin’s administration will inevitably understand the necessity to go back to civilized world.

Ukrainian political scientist Aleksandr Paliy in the interview with “EuroBelarus” Information Service analyzes the aggravation of situation in Donbas and Kremlin’s plans re Ukraine.

- The war in Donbas has escalated, which is proved by fierce fights for Donetsk airport and mass bombardments of Ukrainian army by the gunmen. What has caused yet another aggravation of situation in Donbas?

- Putin won’t let Ukraine live in peace, as peaceful Ukraine for him will echo in possible questions regarding the economic and social results of his rule in the Russian society. When the whole world is developing, while Russia is undergoing crisis, what can he talk about except Ukraine? Putin won’t make Russia competitive despite good starting opportunities; he won’t be responsible for that.

- Despite peacemaking rhetoric, Kremlin isn’t making any steps for settling the conflict. Moreover, vice-rector of the Plekhanov Russian University Markov told about the possible intervention of Russian army into Ukraine. Is Kremlin really able for an open intervention into Ukraine?

- It is already going on. From approximate 30 thousand gunmen in Ukraine 20 thousand are Russians, including 10 thousand Russian troops. Intervention of troops, not mercenaries or volunteers started in late August-September and hasn’t stopped so far.

- Russia accused Ukraine of non-fulfilling Minsk agreements and demanded to give Donetsk airport to the gunmen. What is it speaking about?

- Kremlin is very good at lying. According to Minsk agreements, the warring parties were to remain at their positions. Instead of that, Russians are attacking the airport and activated military actions at other directions. According to Minsk agreements, foreign gunmen and heavy machinery were to be withdrawn from Ukraine, and they entered the country instead. That is why sanctions are imposed on Russia, not Ukraine.

- With the escalation of conflict in Ukraine the question of possible abolition of sanctions against Russia has been high on the EU’s agenda. Why is it so?

- Because it’s quite realistic way to influence Russia without any consequences for the EU. Russian economy is ten times less than European one, and that is why it is more vulnerable. Moreover, it is one-sidedly oriented on raw-materials branch. It will cost almost nothing for the EU to introduce restrictions or at least elements of embargo on Russian oil, collaboration in the nuclear sphere, cessation of bank transfers; whereas for Russia it will mean final collapse of the economy.

- The official Kiev voiced its own conditions for cancellation of sanctions against Russia. Kiev assumes that the EU should cancel anti-Russian sanctions only if Moscow compensates Ukraine for the infringed damage, gives Crimea back, and stops destabilization at the east of the country. Basically, it means Russia’s capitulation in the Russia-Ukraine war. How realistic is this scenario now?

- For now this scenario is hardly possible; however, everything changes. I think that next Russia’s head will inevitably understand the necessity to go back to civilized world.

- How possible is cancellation of sanctions against Russia on the part of the EU? What conditions are required for that?

- If Minsk agreements are fulfilled, i.e. the aggression in Donbas is ceased, the EU is, basically, ready to cancel the major part of sanctions. And sanctions for Crimea are quite symbolic.

- Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry suggested that Russia signs a schedule of Minsk agreements’ implementation, which would allow ceasing fire from January 19. Do the ceasefire and realization of Minsk agreements fit in the current Kremlin’s strategy?

- No, it’s obvious. Russia is still hoping that under the blows of War, propaganda, and sabotage Ukraine’s economy and government will be destroyed earlier than its own. But Russia had a lot of miscalculations re Ukraine over the last years.

- Why did the last round of Minsk negotiations that had been scheduled for January 16 fail through?

- Mainly because Putin needs army to justify failures, and West is still thinking about providing fundamental military aid.

- What are the perspectives of Minsk negotiation process, especially considering that Kazakhstan is ready to take over the negotiation initiative?

- To put it short: he who will be the most stubborn wins. Ukrainian people are very stubborn.