Uladzimir Matskevich: Russia is trying to revert military aggression in the civil war mode

It seems that Ukraine and Mariupol are perceived as not its own territory by Europe. That is why EU’s interference in Russia-Ukraine conflict is so inert and inconsistent.

Yet another inhumane attack of the gunmen shocked not only Ukraine but also the whole world: in result of bombardment of living areas in Mariupol 30 people were killed. The murder of civilians happened when the gunmen were attacking on all fronts. Russia-Ukraine war entered the new phase of escalation.

Why did it happen now? What will be the reaction of the world community to another military crime in Ukraine? Should the pointless Minsk negotiations be continued?

Uladzimir Matskevich, the head of the Board of the International Consortium “EuroBelarus”, answers the questions of “EuroBelarus” Information Service.

- The world was shocked with yet another dreadful terroristic attack: in result of bombardment of living areas in Mariupol 30 people were killed, 100 people were injured, and the gunmen announced that they’re assaulting Mariupol. By scale and cynicism this attack is comparable to destruction of the Malaysian Boeing in Donetsk area. What does a new turn in the Russia-Ukraine war mean?

- There is no new turn in the Russia-Ukraine war; gunmen are attacking on all fronts, the conflict entered a new phase of escalation. One more military crime was committed, whatever its reasons are.

As to the Russia-Ukraine war, we need to recall the forces that are taking part in the military conflict: partially from the fanatics of the “Russian world” concept and can go far for it; partially – from the regular Special Forces, who know how but don’t want to war, and might make mistakes due to non-understanding of the aims of this absurd war; partially – from looters and adventurists of all kind, who terrorize and keep the seized territories at bay and who cannot be controlled. Thus, we can only wonder how few such crimes happen.

- What is Russia aimed at by escalating the conflict?

- The military adventure that Russia started in Ukraine doesn’t have long-term positive aims. Russia is looking for a way-out from today’s situation. Kremlin sees this way-out only in transforming military aggression into the state of civil war, which was planned as early as the start of military actions in Donbas; and attacks in Odessa and other cities in the east of Ukraine only unleash the civil war. However, this plan is unrealistic; Ukrainian nation only unites in front of the external aggression; however, Kremlin doesn’t want to take this obvious fact into account.

- What will be the reaction of the world community to the murder of civilians in Ukraine? Extraordinary meetings of international structures are being convened, tough statements are made; however, will the adequate reaction of the world community follow?

- International community is changing its attitude towards the Russia-Ukraine conflict too slowly. Europe needed several months to recognize the fact of Russian aggression in Ukraine; then another few months for Europe to finally join the sanctions against the provocateur of the war – Russia. However, sanctions of the international community are inconsistent and ineffective.

If we compare the reaction of the international community to the attacks in Mariupol and in France, we’ll see that the reactions are absolutely disproportionate. It looks like Europe doesn’t perceive Ukraine and Mariupol as its own territory, but rather as a second-rate country and nation.

It will be long till Europe recognizes the Russia-Ukraine war as its own war.

Impudent behavior of Russian diplomacy at all international meetings, conferences reaches its effect only because the international community can’t determine its final position on Russia-Ukraine war.

- What triggered the escalation of the conflict, which used to be quite torpid until now?

- It’s time to make conclusions from the former attempts to bring Russia to reason and give an adequate evaluation of the attempts the world community made to stop Russian aggression. The actions of the world community are ineffective; the worse the situation becomes inside Russia, the more it needs to imitate victories in Ukraine. Putin and his faction are trying to resolve inner-Russian problems on Ukraine’s expense untwisting the militarist hand wheel. Slow pressure on Russia only leads to the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine.

- Does it mean that the international community needs more decisive actions?

- International community should undertake more decisive measures, preventive actions, aimed at forestalling aggression, not steps that are only a reaction to introduction of a new portion of Russian army to Ukraine. World community shouldn’t merely react to the escalation of the conflict by Russia, but work on forestalling it.

- Escalation of the conflict happened after the disruption of a new round of Minsk negotiations on Ukraine. On the threshold of the attack the gunmen announced that they see no sense in further negotiations in Minsk format. Really, during signing the Minsk Memorandum gunmen seized more than 500 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory. Minsk Memorandum isn’t working; so is there sense in Minsk negotiations?

- Since the start of negotiation I was saying that Minsk format won’t bring any effect, and was condemned for that more than once. It is not the way to lead negotiations.

Despite unpopularity of my point of view, Minsk negotiation process turned to be ineffective; it didn’t lead to cessation of fire and truce even once. The gunmen never took into account the signed Minsk negotiations; this is the tactics of the hybrid war. Since Russia categorically refuses to recognize its participation in the war and take responsibility for the warfare, it enables Russia to account all violations of the peaceful process for uncontrolled gangs. Since uncontrolled gangs cannot be brought before court, it will continue further. Negotiations are to be led with Russia as a party to the conflict; the other side of the conflict is Ukraine with mediation of UN or other international structures.  The best variant is for NATO to say its word, which, of course, will cause extreme hostility against Putin and Russian diplomacy. But in today’s situation UN is unable to be a mediator in the Russia-Ukraine war, as Russia still is a regular member of the UN Security Council and has a right to veto the decision it takes, which should be taken away from Russia.

- What is awaiting Ukraine in the future?

- In the future Ukraine will win this war, and occupied territories will return under Kremlin’s control. The question is how long this war is to last, for how long the looters will terrorize the country, how long Ukraine will reap the fruits of Yanukovich’s regime, who was devastating the country with the support of Russia.

For the conflict to decline either good will of Kremlin is required or Kremlin should be made to withdraw its troops from Ukraine. But unfortunately, Europe isn’t yet demonstrating political will to make Russia do that.