Uladzimir Matskevich: Conflict between Turkey and Russia will reach the level of NATO

Russia is being let know that its intervention in the Syrian conflict is highly undesirable.

Destruction of Russian bomber Su-24 by Turkish military aviation has led to the announcement of the visa regime with Turkey from 1 January 2015 year. Vladimir Putin signed a decree on imposing sanctions against Turkey.

Ankara is trying to settle the incident, but the Turkey President refused to apologize to Moscow for the destruction of the Russian bomber. Moreover, Erdoğan announced that Turkey would continue to shoot down military aircraft that violate the country's airspace.

Apart from participating in the war in Donbas and Syria, Russia, perforce, got involved in a conflict with Turkey and, consequently, with NATO.

Why did Russia-Turkey confrontation emerged and what can it lead to?

Uladzimir Matskevich, the head of the Board of the International Consortium “EuroBelarus”, analyzes the situation in the interview with the “EuroBelarus” Information Service.

- Destruction of Russian bomber in Turkey can be compared to the assassination of the Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria – it was an event that became a trigger for the start of the World War II. Is the scale of the Russia-Turkey conflict exaggerated?

- I think that it really is a big exaggeration: it is the airplane that is shaken down, not a Crown Prince. The airplane has been shaken down during the prolonged war in Syria; that’s why even if we can consider the destruction of an airplane as a possible turning point, we can state that it happened in the war that has already started; it is an episode of the active stage of war Russia has started to intervene in recently, thus disrupting the balance of power in the war. Russian factor in the Syrian war won’t make a big difference.

- In the course of the year Russian air forces violated airspace of numerous states of the EU and NATO; however, it was Turkey that ventured to destroy the Russian bomber. Why didn’t Turkey restrain? Or, according to Russia’s version, why did it ambush the Russian Su-24?

- First, let’s consider the reasons for Russia’s intervention into the Syrian conflict.

The area controlled by the Alawites, or the regime of Bashar al-Assad, has a military base - the only Russian military base in the Mediterranean. As the Assad regime is under threat, Russia has decided to take steps to preserve the regime, or at least to preserve the military base.

On the other hand, intervention into the Syrian conflict was dictated by Russia's attempt to return to the geopolitical arena in the role of a serious player. Such behavior affects the interests of the leading countries in the region and the world powers.

Leading countries in the region are divided regarding Syrian democratic opposition, tied up to the complex relationships associated with the so-called "Islamic state" of Iraq and the Levant and to the regime of Bashar al-Assad. While Iran supports Assad, Turkey rather supports the Sunni majority in Syria and is concerned about a military conflict being erupted close to its territory; all the more that there is a number of ethnic groups in Syria that tend to Turkey and are in opposition to the Assad regime.

Accordingly, Saudi Arabia, on the one hand, supports the Sunni opposition to Assad as the leader of the Alawites minority of Syria, on the other hand – has a certain relationship with the "Islamic state", which controls significant parts of the north and west of Syria.

The Russian intervention cannot but concern all the countries that have their own interests in the region; it is careless and not perfect. Although the "Islamic State" controls considerable territory of at least two countries, it has no clear territory. The uprising in Syria covered more than half of the country; whereas military groups, groups of "Islamic state" are spread across the territory. Therefore, any bombing and any raids cannot be precise a fortiori: opposition groups that are under the auspices of Turkey and are the enemies "of the Islamic state" can also get bombed. Military raids only irritate all parties to the conflict.

On the other hand, Turkey as a NATO member doesn’t feel excited about the Russian military base in Latakia. Therefore, Russia is being let know that its intervention in the Syrian conflict will not only lead to the positive resolution, but is highly undesirable.

- After destroying a Turkish humanitarian convoy, from January 1, 2016, Russia also introduces visa regime with Turkey. That was Russia’s "appropriate response" to the actions of Turkey. How far can the conflict go?

- Conflict between Turkey and Russia will come to a higher level and reach the level of NATO. Turkey is unlikely to escalate the conflict with Russia, at least to turn it into a military conflict. Whereas diplomatic and information war between Russia and Turkey could easily erupt.

Turkey has already activated in the South Caucasus, as evidenced by the visit of the Turkish Foreign Minister in Baku. It must be understood that Turkey and Armenia still don’t have diplomatic relations, which means that if Azerbaijan takes Turkish side in the conflict with Russia, the threat of an escalation of the Karabakh conflict will be growing.

On the other hand, Turkish influence in the Muslim part of Russia became clear long time ago. Thus, separatism movements in Tatarstan and other Muslim regions pin their hopes on getting autonomy with Turkey, and with Turkey have pinned their hopes for autonomy separatist currents in Tatarstan and other Muslim regions. It will escalate the situation in Russia itself.

In result of the conflict with Russia, political situation in Turkey will consolidate Turkish society. Unless these events will spur separatist movements of the Kurds, which might become an additional trouble spot in Turkey.

But the political situation in Russia its participation in the Syrian conflict carries danger and threat.

- Russia is mired in a war in the Donbas, actively involved in the Syrian events, and now in the conflict with Turkey, too. It seems that Russia consciously expands the battle-front. Is it possible to prevent an escalation of this conflict?

- I just think that the Putin regime no longer controls the situation. Kremlin’s goals for intervention in the Syrian conflict were completely different. I have already said about the two causes of the Russian intervention, but there is a third reason - an attempt to divert the attention of public opinion in Russia and in the world from the war in the Donbas. It is unlikely that this attempt will give a positive result for the Putin regime. It is already obvious that the Russian intervention in the Syrian conflict is not successful: a small victorious war did not take place. But Russia did not count on such a reaction from Turkey in the conflict. Turkey's interest in resolving the Syrian conflict is obvious, but the fact that Turkey may escalate its relations with Russia wasn’t planned by the Kremlin regime. With intervention in the Syrian conflict, Russia has only worsened its situation, not solved the assigned tasks.

- Will Russia dare to confront NATO?

- It has already. The question is not whether Russia will enter into conflict, but how far it is willing to go in this conflict. The existence of a military base in Latakia is at risk; there is a threat of increased military presence of NATO at the Russian borders. The presence of NATO forces at the Russian borders does not increase the threat of war in itself but rather lowers it. However, the approach of NATO could be accompanied by a variety of diplomatic and economic moves, including the aggravation of sanctions, and freezing of cooperation with Russia in different regions of the world, not just in the trouble spot.

I think that the events in Syria and around will lead to serious geopolitical rearrangements. The scale of these rearrangements depends on how far are willing to go the main parties to the conflict: both NATO, with Turkey in particular as well as Russia.